Columbus Mayoral Race: Who’s in the Lead?
While speaking directly with mayoral candidates Andrew Ginther and Zach Scott, Columbus Underground was told by both that polling numbers indicated that each candidate was currently in the lead over his opponent. We requested some documentation from each candidate’s campaign offices to figure out which information was most accurate.
Andrew Ginther’s campaign manager released a memo on September 25th stating that Ginther “holds a commanding 16-point lead over Sheriff Zach Scott”. The survey, completed by national firm EMC Research, shows Ginther in the lead by a 48 to 32 percentage point margin. The survey was conducted from a sampling of 500 likely voters through a landline and cell phone sampling, with a margin of error at +/- 4.38 percent.
That survey was completed and the memo was released a full week prior to the announcement that Redflex lobbyist John Raphael has accepted full responsibility for improper interactions with the company.
“According to the poll, a large majority of Columbus voters are optimistic about the direction of our city,” stated Ginther’s Campaign Manager Bryan Clark in the memo. “As the campaign heads into the final days, we know our opponent will get even more desperate. After all, this is the same candidate who claimed to have a 15-point lead in the primary, then lost by 34-points.”
Several days earlier, on September 20, mayoral candidate Zach Scott received a memo from Florida-based Cookson Research Consulting, that states that the candidate has “moved to within clear striking distance of undoing Andrew Gintherʼs bid for Columbus Mayor”.
Scott’s memo doesn’t show specific polling data metrics, but says that Ginther’s support is at 37 percent among general election voters with 33 percent still undecided. It adds that Zach Scott is currently leading Ginther with middle class Republican voters and that he is “in a virtual dead heat” with Ginther among voters over 65 who live on the city’s north side.
“With a vigorous campaign and solid messaging, Zach Scott has an excellent chance to surpass and to defeat Andrew Ginther for Mayor,” stated David Cookson in the memo. “Even when simulating, with each of the candidatesʼ positives and negatives presented, Scott grows his support significantly while Gintherʼs support declines.”
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