On September 14th, Donald Trump pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in the State of Ohio’s polls, according to aggregate data analysis site Five Thirty Eight. This marks the first time Trump has had a polling lead over Clinton since July 31st, and a much difference scenario than exactly one month ago when Five Thirty Eight projected Trump’s chances of winning the state at only 20.4 percent.
Of the most recent 10 polls conducted, Trump has led Clinton in seven of the results. Those include polls by CNN, YouGov, Quinnipiac, Emerson and SurveyMonkey. Third party Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is projected to have less than a 0.1 percent chance of winning Ohio, according to the latest results.
“Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all,” stated Five Thirty Eight founder Nate Silver in an update published on Friday. “National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her.”
Of course, polling information is likely to change a lot between now and November 8th, especially since the national presidential debates have yet to take place. The first is scheduled for Monday, September 26th with followup debates scheduled for Sunday, October 9th and Wednesday, October 19th.
Johnson, along with Green Party candidate Jill Stein, did not qualify with high enough polling percentages to qualify to take part in the presidential debates.
For more information, visit projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/.