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Predicted Outcomes for Ohio’s Major Races

Lauren Sega Lauren Sega Predicted Outcomes for Ohio’s Major Races
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Despite the criticism lobbed at the Republican Party since President Donald Trump took office, the GOP is leading in a number of races here in Ohio, according to several polls.

The 2018 midterm election has been discussed as one of the most crucial in history. In an increasingly polarized nation, more people than ever are getting out to vote, with hopes to either keep on the current trajectory or push in another direction. As of yesterday, 166,936 Franklin County voters have already cast their ballots, about 51,000 more than in the midterm election in 2014.

There are key races to watch all over the nation. The governor’s races in Georgia, Florida and Texas have rekindled discussions around voter suppression, systemic racism, and universal healthcare. District races in New Jersey, Virginia and Kentucky have shown the complications of walking the pro- and anti-Trump divide.

Ohio has its own share of heated races, including in District 12, where Republican Troy Balderson goes up against Danny O’Connor once again for the seat Balderson won in August’s special election. Formerly an easy win for Republicans, including in 2016 when Trump won by 11 points, the District 12 race was too close to call for nearly three weeks.

Continue reading for a breakdown of the projected outcomes of Ohio’s major races:

  • Governor — Mike DeWine (R) vs. Richard Cordray (D): Real Clear Politics is calling this race a toss-up, but Cordray currently leads 47.7 to 43 percent.
  • Attorney General — Dave Yost (R) vs. Steve Dettelbach (D): The Ohio Star says it’s anyone’s race, with Yost leading by a narrow margin, 44 to 41.8 percent.
  • State Auditor — Keith Faber (R) vs. Zack Space (D): A Baldwin Wallace poll from a week ago has Space leading 40.2 to 32 percent.
  • Secretary of State — Frank LaRose (R) vs. Kathleen Clyde (D): That same Baldwin-Wallace poll has Clyde leading LaRose, 39.8 to 33.7 percent.
  • U.S. Senate — Jim Renacci (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D): Real Clear Politics has picked Brown as the winner of this race. He leads Renacci 46 to 37 percent.
  • US House District 3 — Jim Burgess (R) vs. Joyce Beatty (D): According to FiveThirtyEight, Beatty has this race in the bag, leading Burgess 74.2 to 25.8 percent.
  • US House District 12 — Troy Balderson (R) vs. Danny O’Connor (D): This race looks better for Balderson than it did back in August. FiveThirtyEight is giving O’Connor just a one-in-three chance of winning, with Balderson leading 49.8 to 47.5 percent.
  • US House District 15 — Steve Stivers (R) vs Rick Neal (D): FiveThirtyEight predicts a republican win for the District 15 race, with Stivers leading Neal 56.3 to 40.7 percent.

Democrats have one big goal for the midterm election: take over the House of Representatives. FiveThirtyEight says they have a good shot, giving Democrats a seven-in-eight chance of gaining control of the House. The Senate odds don’t favor Democrats as much; FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a five-in-six chance of maintaining control of the Senate.

Polls are not fortune tellers, but merely predictions based on surveys of portions of the overall population. Many sources are instructing voters to ignore the polls altogether, because if their prediction of the 2016 is any indication, they could be nothing more than rough guesses. In the days leading up to the last presidential election, every major poll had given Hillary Clinton a more than 90 percent chance of winning, and everyone knows how that played out.

Monday, Nov. 5 is the last day of early voting. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 6.

To find more voting information, visit vote.franklincountyohio.gov

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