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The Fiscal Cliff

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  • #519267
    rus
    rus
    Participant

    Walker said:
    Depends on how you define “pain”. Americans buying less junk for awhile? Sounds like a good thing to me. ;)

    Unless you’re selling junk ;)

    #519268

    James
    Participant

    Walker said:
    Sure, but what better way to curtail the accumulation of personal credit card debt than to force the reduction of discretionary spending? The average $50k salary owner could ditch their $60/mo cable tv plan, cook more at home and eat out less, rationalize driving the car a bit less, and make a more conscious decision to not be wasteful with one’s dollars and probably get over that $2k hump without any true “pain”. Maybe might have to cancel taking a summer vacation in 2013 or buying a new TV with a tax return paycheck. Yee-owch!

    So is that a bad thing for the economy? Yes, but only because America is way too oversaturated with retail to begin with. Our economy should not be propped up by the mantra that Americans needs to keep buying shit they don’t really need just to squeak out that 1.7% economic growth stat by the end of the year.

    Not to get all “Fight Club”, but this fiscal cliff might just be a necessary economic reality check for our country. Don’t buy anything for a year and pay off the national debt. It’s gotta happen sooner or later, so why not sooner?

    Sounds like you’re ready to lead America in calesthenics at 6am every morning until we get in shape? ;-)

    it’s easy to say we spend too much on junk, but our economy is a retail economy. I’m surprised to hear growth would only go ~1% negative if we drove off the cliff. I’d think it would be a lot deeper. And for some people, that junk they cut out may be health insurance or food or something not so junky.

    #519269
    hugh59
    hugh59
    Participant

    After the last election I am giving up being a partisan. Neither party represents my views or shows concerns for the two issues of primary concern to me: sensible change to our tax system that will fairly tax all citizens (including the very wealthy), civil service reform, and prioritizing government spending. I am going to try not to insult people who disagree with me. Instead, I am going to try and learn from them. I am going to criticize bad behavior no matter which political party is doing it. I am no longer going to defend stupid behavior by Republicans.

    Regarding Paul Krugman, he wrote that anyone who disagreed with him regarding pre-election polls was stupid. The pre-election polls he supported appear to have been very accurate, but that does not mean that people who questioned their methodology were “stupid.” It is “stupid” not to have some questions about any study. It is “stupid” to insult people who disagree with you. It is “stupid” to take anyone else as an authority and stop looking for the truth.

    #519270
    derm
    derm
    Participant

    hugh59 said:
    After the last election I am giving up being a partisan. Neither party represents my views or shows concerns for the two issues of primary concern to me: sensible change to our tax system that will fairly tax all citizens (including the very wealthy), civil service reform, and prioritizing government spending. I am going to try not to insult people who disagree with me. Instead, I am going to try and learn from them. I am going to criticize bad behavior no matter which political party is doing it. I am no longer going to defend stupid behavior by Republicans.

    Regarding Paul Krugman, he wrote that anyone who disagreed with him regarding pre-election polls was stupid. The pre-election polls he supported appear to have been very accurate, but that does not mean that people who questioned their methodology were “stupid.” It is “stupid” not to have some questions about any study. It is “stupid” to insult people who disagree with you. It is “stupid” to take anyone else as an authority and stop looking for the truth.

    As an independent, I welcome you.

    Also, the economist/forecaster/researcher guy I follow says the first big leg down of deleveraging starts here shortly, might go up a bit, then down down.

    #519271
    hugh59
    hugh59
    Participant

    I have read some of Krugman’s older stuff and he can be extremely informative. But his brilliance came down a lot when he became a pundit. I have read a lot of his articles at the New York Times and he seems to be making his case to people who already agree with him. He has become a cheerleader for one side of the political debate. That does little good for people who are not yet convinced.

    #519272

    tdziemia
    Participant

    Walker, while I tend to agree personally that Americans are way to fixated on buying junk we don’t need, there is also rus’ point that when people stop buying it, jobs will be lost (the people making and selling it), since America’s economy depends on the private sector to a higher extent than most other industrialized economies (also James’ comment).

    Don’t know what the best solution is, but I hope policymakers are at least looking over at European economies which have tried “austerity” with not so positive results.

    As for “deleveraging” well, yes, some economists have been predicting it will start for a rather long time. Sort of like how they’ve predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions. And what do we do about it??

    #519273

    DavidF
    Participant

    Sure, let’s jump off the cliff and stop buying junk. It’s not like my job in retail has any value anyway. Hell, my last stint of unemployment only lasted 2 years, I’ll just consider it an extended camping trip! Why should my life have any value when there’s a point to be made?

    Thanks for showing me the way Walker. ;)

    (rant contains 23.41% of the recommended daily allowance of hyperbole)

    #519274

    James
    Participant

    derm said:
    As an independent, I welcome you.

    Also, the economist/forecaster/researcher guy I follow says the first big leg down of deleveraging starts here shortly, might go up a bit, then down down.

    I think the US has deleveraged twice in the post-WW 2 era. It happened after that war, and it happened during the Clinton era. I think each time the reduction in public debt resulted mainly from growth-driven increases in tax revenue, not spending cuts or tax rate increases.

    Our debts have only been successfully tackled through growth.

    #519275
    Walker Evans
    Walker Evans
    Keymaster

    James said:
    Sounds like you’re ready to lead America in calesthenics at 6am every morning until we get in shape? ;-)

    I feel like I’m a fairly responsible spender. I’m not a “shop for the sake of shopping” type of person and we keep a balanced home budget with very little credit card debt. But 6am is early for me. I couldn’t get up at that hour to lead anything. ;)

    James said:
    it’s easy to say we spend too much on junk, but our economy is a retail economy.

    It hasn’t always been that way, and there’s no reason to think that it will always need to be that way. Things change.

    James said:
    I’m surprised to hear growth would only go ~1% negative if we drove off the cliff. I’d think it would be a lot deeper.

    But “Snowpocolypse” sounds much better than “two inches overnight”. ;)

    James said:And for some people, that junk they cut out may be health insurance or food or something not so junky.

    I’m certainly not advocating for unaffordability of necessities like food, shelter and access to healthcare. Just saying that I imagine everyone would find a way to get by with some belt tightening. A few less trips to the mall… a few less trips through the drive thru. ;)

    #519276
    Coremodels
    Coremodels
    Participant

    Clinton raised the tax rates in an almost identical way to what Obama has proposed on the top tiers.

    #519277
    Walker Evans
    Walker Evans
    Keymaster

    DavidF said:
    Thanks for showing me the way Walker. ;)

    Our business model is supported almost entirely by retailers, so it’s not like my extreme example wouldn’t be shooting myself in the foot too. ;)

    I imagine some sort of compromise is going to be reached in the next few weeks anyway.

    #519278

    James
    Participant

    Coremodels said:
    Clinton raised the tax rates in an almost identical way to what Obama has proposed on the top tiers.

    And I believe the fastest increase in federal receipts and the greatest reduction in debt was associated with the period when the rates were lowered (and growth accelerated and spending was constrained) – 1996 – 2000.

    #519279

    James
    Participant

    Walker said:
    Our business model is supported almost entirely by retailers, so it’s not like my extreme example wouldn’t be shooting myself in the foot too. ;)

    I imagine some sort of compromise is going to be reached in the next few weeks anyway.

    It would be nice if it happened before christmas and my annual junk-shopping spree.

    #519280

    howatzer
    Participant

    Walker said:
    Depends on how you define “pain”. Americans buying less junk for awhile? Sounds like a good thing to me. ;)

    You mean like from the advertisers supporting this website?

    #519281
    Walker Evans
    Walker Evans
    Keymaster

    howatzer said:
    You mean like from the advertisers supporting this website?

    Previously…

    Walker said:
    Our business model is supported almost entirely by retailers, so it’s not like my extreme example wouldn’t be shooting myself in the foot too. ;)

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 244 total)

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