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Polls Show a Bleak Outlook for Ohio Democrats

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  • #398089
    hugh59
    hugh59
    Participant

    I asked Jay Cost about the Ohio polls. He analyzes polls over at American Spectator. Here is what I asked:

    Things look odd in the Ohio Governor’s race. CNN has a poll out today with Strickland in the lead…that is a first for a long time. I assume that they have some interesting totals for Dem versus Rep turnout.

    Are you going to be looking at this soon?

    Here is his response:

    Maybe but their polls are so crappy it is like child’s play at this point. I would ignore their polls.

    #398090

    gramarye
    Participant

    Core_Models wrote >>

    hugh59 wrote >>

    Core_Models wrote >>
    At this point, every candidate looks like a complete f’ing genius compared to Christine O’Donnell. She’s done more harm to the Tea Party in 2 months than I could have imagined.

    I don’t like O’Donnell. I opposed her during the primary (not that it matters since I am not a Delaware voter). However, I know her. I worked with her ten years ago putting on a convention in Washington, DC. She is not stupid as the media is making her seem. She is just not the kind of person who should be running for office.

    I don’t know, I thought the mice with fully functioning human brains was the peak of it…but then there was the debate yesterday.

    I didn’t see that, or the one Monday, but I bet the one Monday in NY was far more entertaining. Why? Because the rent is too damn high.

    #398091

    Mercurius
    Participant

    On state level races, Suffolk University released a poll on Oct. 8 showing O’Shaighnessy leading Husted 44% to 33% with 23% undecided, Boyce leading Mandel 37% to 34% and 24% undecided, DeWine leading Cordray 44% to 38% with 13% undecided and Pepper leading Yost 33% to 29% with 32% undecided. Other interesting things are 63% of likely voter favor legalization of marijuana for medical use or personal use but a majority is still against civil unions or gay marriage – against 43% for 42% with 14% undecided.

    If these numbers are accurate, regardless of the governor’s race, the Ohio Apportionment Board will go to the Democrats. After winning every major newpaper endorsement and having greater name recognition – it’s a surprise to see Husted down by a margin of 11 points. The undecided still remain huge though – and everything else says they are voting for Republicans this election by a large margin.

    #398092

    RBloodworth
    Participant

    hugh59 wrote >>
    I asked Jay Cost about the Ohio polls. He analyzes polls over at American Spectator. Here is what I asked:

    Things look odd in the Ohio Governor’s race. CNN has a poll out today with Strickland in the lead…that is a first for a long time. I assume that they have some interesting totals for Dem versus Rep turnout.
    Are you going to be looking at this soon?

    Here is his response:

    Maybe but their polls are so crappy it is like child’s play at this point. I would ignore their polls.

    Yeah, you’re going to get nothing but unbiased analysis from the Richard Mellon Scaife-funded American Spectator (rolls eyes)… I agree with you that this CNN poll seems like an outlier- given that every other poll shows a Kasich lead of 8-10 points- but I wouldn’t discredit it out of hand just based on an opinion from an analyst at the right-wing equivalent of The Nation.

    #398093
    hugh59
    hugh59
    Participant

    RBloodworth wrote >>

    hugh59 wrote >>
    I asked Jay Cost about the Ohio polls. He analyzes polls over at American Spectator. Here is what I asked:

    Things look odd in the Ohio Governor’s race. CNN has a poll out today with Strickland in the lead…that is a first for a long time. I assume that they have some interesting totals for Dem versus Rep turnout.
    Are you going to be looking at this soon?

    Here is his response:

    Maybe but their polls are so crappy it is like child’s play at this point. I would ignore their polls.

    Yeah, you’re going to get nothing but unbiased analysis from the Richard Mellon Scaife-funded American Spectator (rolls eyes)… I agree with you that this CNN poll seems like an outlier- given that every other poll shows a Kasich lead of 8-10 points- but I wouldn’t discredit it out of hand just based on an opinion from an analyst at the right-wing equivalent of The Nation.

    I followed Cost when he was writing during the 2004 and 2008 elections; his analysis was pretty good. He explained a lot about what was going on inside the polls better than anyone else.

    I always keep the source of information in mind when I assign it credibility, but good info can come from surprising places. Of course, if you are just going to write off conservative sources, that is your choice.

    One more thing, Cost also did analysis for Real Clear Politics for a while. People seem to think highly of the aggregation of polls done by that site.

    #398094

    Mercurius
    Participant

    An interesting poll today from PPP:

    [url=http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_1030513.pdf]”The Ohio Governor’s race is looking like it could go either way three days out from the election. Ted Strickland has made a huge comeback in the final months of the campaign and now trails John Kasich only 49-48. PPP’s most recent previous poll, in late August, had found Strickland trailing by 10 points. What Strickland has done over the last two months is bring the base home. He’s now winning 87% of the Democratic vote, up from only 78% in the previous poll. Democrats also look like they’ll now account for a larger share of the electorate, as the party’s voters have increased their interest in turning out as the election has moved closer. If Kasich does end up winning it will be because he, like most Republican candidates nationally and particularly in the Midwest, is cleaning up with independents. He has an 18 point lead with them at 56-38.”[/url]

    Also interesting is they asked:

    If the candidates for US Senate had been
    Democrat Jennifer Brunner and Republican
    Rob Portman, who would you have voted for?
    Jennifer Brunner ……………………………………… 36%
    Rob Portman…………………………………………… 53%
    Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

    PPP is one of the most respected polling firms

    #398095

    deraj1013
    Participant

    From the Dispatch…

    Kasich by a hair
    The governor’s race is tight; voter turnout will be the key. Otherwise, the GOP looks to dominate

    By Darrel Rowland

    John Kasich has a razor-thin edge over Gov. Ted Strickland going into the final hours of an expensive, bitterly contested campaign that might wind up as Ohio’s closest in 32 years.

    Read more

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