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Polls Show a Bleak Outlook for Ohio Democrats

Home Forums General Columbus Discussion Politics Polls Show a Bleak Outlook for Ohio Democrats

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  • #83117

    Mercurius
    Participant

    What a difference two years make. With less than 75 days to the November election and early voting starting a month away, Democrats are trailing in nearly every competitive race. While political polling is notorious for push polls, missing a younger demographic that lacks land lines and just plain political bias – a mean of those polls starts to provide a clear picture of public sentiment.

    At the congressional level, Rob Portman maintains a seven point lead over Lee Fisher – and Portman has a 9 to 1 war chest to spend. Paula Brooks, whom once was considered competitive, now trails Pat Teberi by 17 points and is no longer a key race for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

    While more competitive, Mary Jo Kilroy is trailing Steve Stivers by five points, statistically meaningful and Steve Chabot leads Steve Driehaus by at least ten points. Bob Gibbs and Zack Space remain in a dead heat.

    At the Ohio level, John Kasich has extended his lead over Governor Ted Strickland by eight to nine points respectively in the last two polls. The picture at the Ohio House of Representatives doesn’t look much different.

    Perhaps more important than all of these individual races is the re-drawing of legislative districts that will result from this election. The Apportionment Board consist of seven members, but three races decide the majority since both the Ohio House of Representatives and Ohio Senate both appoint a majority and minority member. Those three seats are the Ohio Governor, Secretary of State and Ohio Auditor. Jon Husted is all but guaranteed to win the SOS race and if Kasich maintains his lead, to the victor goes the spoils – at least for the next ten years, perhaps more.

    Ohio is set to lose two congressional districts due to our loss of population. The Apportionment Board will decide which two districts are removed. Here’s betting that whomever wins the apportionment board, both seats lost belong to the other party.

    #397940

    myliftkk
    Participant

    Are the dems really campaigning in earnest yet? I’m always seeing Kaisch/Portman ads and virtually none for any Dem on TV at night.

    #397941

    gk
    Member

    myliftkk wrote >>
    Are the dems really campaigning in earnest yet? I’m always seeing Kaisch/Portman ads and virtually none for any Dem on TV at night.

    Traditionally, Labor Day weekend kicks off the campaign season for the general election in November.

    #397942

    Mercurius
    Participant

    myliftkk wrote >>
    Are the dems really campaigning in earnest yet? I’m always seeing Kaisch/Portman ads and virtually none for any Dem on TV at night.

    TV time is by far the most expensive form of campaigning. Kasich is trying to introduce himself and boost his name recognition as he hasn’t run state wide in the past. Portman just has so much damn money he doesn’t know what to do with it.

    #397943

    myliftkk
    Participant

    Mercurius wrote >>

    myliftkk wrote >>
    Are the dems really campaigning in earnest yet? I’m always seeing Kaisch/Portman ads and virtually none for any Dem on TV at night.

    TV time is by far the most expensive form of campaigning. Kasich is trying to introduce himself and boost his name recognition as he hasn’t run state wide in the past. Portman just has so much damn money he doesn’t know what to do with it.

    So my guess is the polling this far out is probably a bit premature until Sept when they start going after each other full bore. That is, unless the Ohio Repub catch the strain of “teh crazy” that’s infected places like Nevada and Kentucky.

    Hey, and Blago got off nearly scot-free in his trial, so you never know how things will turn out.

    #397944

    hivner1
    Member

    Ugh, I wish commercials could be outlawed. Mindless, misleading, intruding junk. They are absolutely worthless but sadly effective. “Portman has a plan, he’s even got it in a nicely bound book. Let’s vote for him.”

    #397945

    hivner1
    Member

    But when this man runs for office, his commercials will be badass!

    #397946

    somertimeoh
    Participant

    @myliftkk I thought Blago has to be re-tried? Do you think they won’t pursue it again and just sentence the one count he was guilty of?

    #397947

    Mercurius
    Participant

    myliftkk wrote >>

    Mercurius wrote >>

    myliftkk wrote >>
    Are the dems really campaigning in earnest yet? I’m always seeing Kaisch/Portman ads and virtually none for any Dem on TV at night.

    TV time is by far the most expensive form of campaigning. Kasich is trying to introduce himself and boost his name recognition as he hasn’t run state wide in the past. Portman just has so much damn money he doesn’t know what to do with it.

    So my guess is the polling this far out is probably a bit premature until Sept when they start going after each other full bore. That is, unless the Ohio Repub catch the strain of “teh crazy” that’s infected places like Nevada and Kentucky.
    Hey, and Blago got off nearly scot-free in his trial, so you never know how things will turn out.

    Come Labor Day, if you are consistently six points down, it’s pretty much race over.

    Edit: barring “teh crazy.”

    #397948

    JedThorp
    Member

    I don’t know if I’d say Strickland is “consistently six points down.” I also wouldn’t say he’s in great shape, but 4 of the 6 most recent polls are from Rassmusen, which is seen by most analysts as “conservative leaning” (Scott Rassmusen was a consultant for the Bush campaign in 2004.) Their poll results are consistently Republican leaning when compared to others. I’d be curious to see the next Quinnipiac poll, or Ohio poll when those come out – both of which had Strickland up by 5 points a month ago. Of course, given who’s standing next to me in my avatar, perhaps I’m biased myself.

    #397949

    Mercurius
    Participant

    JedThorp wrote >>
    I don’t know if I’d say Strickland is “consistently six points down.” I also wouldn’t say he’s in great shape, but 4 of the 6 most recent polls are from Rassmusen, which is seen by most analysts as “conservative leaning” (Scott Rassmusen was a consultant for the Bush campaign in 2004.) Their poll results are consistently Republican leaning when compared to others. I’d be curious to see the next Quinnipiac poll, or Ohio poll when those come out – both of which had Strickland up by 5 points a month ago. Of course, given who’s standing next to me in my avatar, perhaps I’m biased myself.

    Jed, I hope you are right but one of the polls is from Ipsos/Reuters too.
    http://www.pollster.com/polls/oh/10-oh-gov-ge-kvs.php

    &

    http://www.pollster.com/polls/oh/jobapproval-govstrickland.php

    #397950

    rustbelt
    Participant

    The traditional thinking that campaigns do not begin in earnest until Labor Day has been altered a good deal by the increase in those eligible to and popularity of early voting.

    Although some politicians & campaigns have been slow to notice.

    #397951

    myliftkk
    Participant

    somertimeoh wrote >>
    @myliftkk I thought Blago has to be re-tried? Do you think they won’t pursue it again and just sentence the one count he was guilty of?

    They can retry him, they don’t have to. They very well could pursue it again, but his lawyers are no joke. They’ve beaten tall odds before, and they done it at least once in his case.

    @merc – true, things will have to start turning fast after labor day, but if nothing else, Rs have been shooting themselves in the proverbial feet this year. If Harry Reid can hold on, any Dem can, provided they force errors on the Rep parts (which they seem to be quite generous in giving up). Given that the R plan is Bush v2.0 (pri-veh-tiz), the extent they can keep crap like the mosque non-story sucking all of political oxygen out of the room the more like they can skate by on plans full of empty pages until nov.

    #397952

    Mercurius
    Participant

    JedThorp wrote >>
    I don’t know if I’d say Strickland is “consistently six points down.” I also wouldn’t say he’s in great shape, but 4 of the 6 most recent polls are from Rassmusen, which is seen by most analysts as “conservative leaning” (Scott Rassmusen was a consultant for the Bush campaign in 2004.) Their poll results are consistently Republican leaning when compared to others. I’d be curious to see the next Quinnipiac poll, or Ohio poll when those come out – both of which had Strickland up by 5 points a month ago. Of course, given who’s standing next to me in my avatar, perhaps I’m biased myself.

    “…For those wondering why Democratic-leaning pollsters like PPP and Quninnipiac have been quiet about this race since early June, the answer should be apparent. There is no law requiring a pollster to publish a poll once taken. Surely, those D-leaning pollsters have been polling the state this summer, but have not been able to deliver news that would not be crushing to Mr. Strickland.…”

    #397953

    Hamsterdam
    Participant

    Lee Fisher is done. He doesn’t stand a chance.

    In the other statewides I offer these observations:

    Gov – I think it’s Kasich’s to lose. This is just one of those wave elections. It’s not that the Republicans are overly popular. It’s just they are not Democrats.

    SOS – Husted.

    AG – DeWine has the name ID but I still think Cordray might pull this one out.

    TOS – Mandel. I think he’ll get the most votes of any statewide candidate.

    Auditor – This one will be really close. 50/50.

    From what I’m hearing, Republicans are up 10 percent on the generic ballot in Ohio. That’s not going to change THAT much in the next 10 weeks.

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