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  • #513098
    Steve
    Steve
    Participant

    InnerCore said:
    As with most things its all politics. Cincinnati used funds from their casino to fund part of their streetcar. Is Cincinnati doing vastly better economically? No. So why are they building and were not?

    I would think one place to start would be a referendum. I believe you only need 1,000 signatures to start the process. Then once it’s launched you would have to spread the word about the issues and get people out to vote on these issues.

    I would think the most glaring issues would be adapting the zoning code to encourage more mixed use development and bringing light rail. Of course a referendum is non binding but it sends a strong signal to the politicians about what the people want.

    Issues like light rail are/will be discussed ad nausem. Let’s get it out there and see where people stand today. Columbus Underground for mixed use. You can print up t-shirts that say “CU for MU”. On the back they can say “More Sprawl, FU”

    On a side not I had a friend that ran a field office for the Obama campaign. These guys worked their butts off and had he help of many volunteers. Were talking about a lot of millenials, the same people in surveys right here in Columbus say they want more urban, walkable environments with better transportation. We had a conversation a few weeks back where I thought it was pretty odd that these people poured their heart and soul into this campaign that really didn’t do much to their daily lives. But then when it comes time to fight for the things they want locally they take a sit back and wait approach.

    I’d also check up with the people over at TransitColumbus.org. I believe they had an annual meeting yesterday. I donated money so I’d like to know if they’re for real before I send them any more.

    Can we just do it on here?

    Would this count or does this not have any merit?

    http://www.change.org/petition

    #513099

    InnerCore
    Participant

    jbcmh81 said:
    There are some obvious assumptions that weren’t supported. First, if rates are rising in these types of neighborhoods in Columbus, why wouldn’t they also be rising in other cities given overall urban trends? Columbus would only be losing its edge if it was singularly rising. If it’s merely keeping up with similar neighborhoods elsewhere, then nothing’s really changing in that regard and Columbus’ neighborhoods would remain competitive.

    They are, the issue is that here in Columbus we aren’t giving any alternatives. We only building a small amount of units in the urban areas. Where as a place like Charlotte is building more in the urban areas as well as more in the suburban areas.

    Take a typical urban rent here in Columbus of a one bedroom around $1,200 – $1,300. We’re talking Flats on Vine, Arena Crossing, etc. Now that’s pretty even compared to Charlotte’s South End. And there you’ll be located right along the rail line.

    Now let’s take a young professional who cant afford $1300. But s/he still wants to be relatively close to a nice shopping area. After s/he is young and doesn’t want to live in the middle of nowhere. So you look at Bradford at Easton. There it looks like you can get a one bedroom for around $900. So not bad, you move out to the burbs and you save $400 a month. But now you’ve got NOTHING to walk to and you have to drive to work and drive to everything else. But at least the drive to the shopping will be shorter.

    Now in Charlotte you can go out in the suburbs and live at Birkdale Village. You remember this one:

    So here you can also get a one bedroom for around $900. So you’ve save yourself $400 just like in Columbus but yet you get to live in an area where you can walk around streets filled with people, walk to do a little shopping, walk to grab a bite to eat or a beer with a friend, walk to the movies or walk to the local festivals with live music.

    So I agree that we are taking strides to make our urban areas competitive (minus the lack of quality public transit), but our suburbs are really falling behind. And as I pointed out our suburbs are where the majority of the growth is.

    jbcmh81 said:
    The immigration breakdown has been posted on the forum before. It didn’t support IC’s claim that Franklin County doesn’t have domestic growth. It has for 6 of the past 7 years, which is a reversal from years prior to 2005. Whatever the problem was, it’s either being mitigated or solved. Is it as strong as some other cities, no, but I’d say that’s a positive change.

    Again this is completely false. Franklin has a net domestic migration loss every single year. You keep seeming to confuse things. Yes Franklin County is now growing in population but that is primarily due to more people having births than people dying and international migration.

    But I’m talking about domestic MIGRATION and not domestic GROWTH. As in, every single year there are more people who live in Franklin County who decide to leave than there are people living in other parts of America who decide to move here.

    Yes were are having enough babies and bringing in enough refugees to cover the loss and help us grow but that doesn’t seem ideal to replace people who are choosing to leave with babies and refugees that don’t have a real choice.

    For example in 2010 (last year of IRS data) 45,147 people left Columbus while 40,553 people moved here. That means we lost about 4,600 in domestic migration. Now we had about 3,300 people from international migration. So even including them we would still be down over 1,000 people. It’s not until you factor in the near 10,000 people that we get from having more births than deaths due you finally get a positive growth number.

    #513100

    InnerCore
    Participant

    stephentszuter said:
    Can we just do it on here?

    Would this count or does this not have any merit?

    http://www.change.org/petition

    I think for it to be merit you’re going to have to get the people who actually go out and vote to vote in favor of this. No one cares about an online petition. But when politicians see the people who vote for them, out at the same polls voting for or against something, they tend to notice. Because if they don’t fall on the same side, they know at some point those people are going to be voting against them.

    ETA: With that being said something is better than nothing.

    #513101
    Josh Lapp
    Josh Lapp
    Participant

    InnerCore said:
    I’d also check up with the people over at TransitColumbus.org. I believe they had an annual meeting yesterday. I donated money so I’d like to know if they’re for real before I send them any more.

    As a board member of Transit Columbus I can assure you that we are. Thanks for your donation and I encourage you to check out videos of our speakers from last night’s meeting on Facebook.

    #513102

    wpcc88
    Participant

    you guys all do realize that Charlotte is a much newer city than Columbus right? and was much smaller before it’s growth

    #513103

    InnerCore
    Participant

    wpcc88 said:
    you guys all do realize that Charlotte is a much newer city than Columbus right? and was much smaller before it’s growth

    I’m pretty sure Charlotte has been around since the 1700’s. But regardless I’m not following the point you’re trying to make.

    #513104

    F5Equity
    Member

    Good points innercore, but you have also failed to mention how no perm financing provider is going to finance a large scale urban project in Columbus. Sure the regional banks will finance these small projects here and there, but imagine trying to get Met-Life to finance something in Columbus, not happening. They would finance projects in chartlotte or denver though. The only developments a place like met life might finance around here are strip malls anchored by Wal Mart. Prime example being the strip mall on Bethel anchored by wal mart.

    #513105

    jbcmh81
    Participant

    InnerCore said:
    They are, the issue is that here in Columbus we aren’t giving any alternatives. We only building a small amount of units in the urban areas. Where as a place like Charlotte is building more in the urban areas as well as more in the suburban areas.

    Take a typical urban rent here in Columbus of a one bedroom around $1,200 – $1,300. We’re talking Flats on Vine, Arena Crossing, etc. Now that’s pretty even compared to Charlotte’s South End. And there you’ll be located right along the rail line.

    Now let’s take a young professional who cant afford $1300. But s/he still wants to be relatively close to a nice shopping area. After s/he is young and doesn’t want to live in the middle of nowhere. So you look at Bradford at Easton. There it looks like you can get a one bedroom for around $900. So not bad, you move out to the burbs and you save $400 a month. But now you’ve got NOTHING to walk to and you have to drive to work and drive to everything else. But at least the drive to the shopping will be shorter.

    Now in Charlotte you can go out in the suburbs and live at Birkdale Village. You remember this one:

    So here you can also get a one bedroom for around $900. So you’ve save yourself $400 just like in Columbus but yet you get to live in an area where you can walk around streets filled with people, walk to do a little shopping, walk to grab a bite to eat or a beer with a friend, walk to the movies or walk to the local festivals with live music.

    So I agree that we are taking strides to make our urban areas competitive (minus the lack of quality public transit), but our suburbs are really falling behind. And as I pointed out our suburbs are where the majority of the growth is.

    Again this is completely false. Franklin has a net domestic migration loss every single year. You keep seeming to confuse things. Yes Franklin County is now growing in population but that is primarily due to more people having births than people dying and international migration.

    But I’m talking about domestic MIGRATION and not domestic GROWTH. As in, every single year there are more people who live in Franklin County who decide to leave than there are people living in other parts of America who decide to move here.

    Yes were are having enough babies and bringing in enough refugees to cover the loss and help us grow but that doesn’t seem ideal to replace people who are choosing to leave with babies and refugees that don’t have a real choice.

    For example in 2010 (last year of IRS data) 45,147 people left Columbus while 40,553 people moved here. That means we lost about 4,600 in domestic migration. Now we had about 3,300 people from international migration. So even including them we would still be down over 1,000 people. It’s not until you factor in the near 10,000 people that we get from having more births than deaths due you finally get a positive growth number.

    Innercore, Columbus has thousands of residential units being built or in the works for the urban core, even if you do not count estimates for neighborhood plans, such as the one for Franklinton. How many thousands does it have to be exactly before you don’t think it’s too few?

    There are quite a few places that haver lower rents in the urban core areas than $1200-$1300/month, especially for a 1-bedroom. Maybe you’re just not looking hard enough.

    And your point about YPers is bizarre. First, why should anyone, let alone YPers, expect affordability in high-demand urban neighborhoods? Charity? A well-known consequence of gentrification is rising rents that price out lower income residents. It may not be ideal, but it’s a reality that is undeniable. Further, if there were more neighborhoods seeing more mixed-use development and increasing urban amenities, what do you think will happen to rents there? They’ll rise, of course. So you’re not arguing for affordability, you’re arguing for the same processes that might price someone out of the Short North, only in different neighborhoods. So if a YPer can’t afford it, too bad, I guess life isn’t fair. We don’t always get what we want or think we deserve. I had to live in Hilltop because that was all I could afford at one time. Getting a brand new 3-bedroom apartment with high-end finishes in the heart of the most vibrant, walkable neighborhoods is not a right.

    A walkable environment with lots of people, retail, restaurants… now where does Columbus have that? Oh yeah, you described Easton. Does it need more residential? Absolutely. Repeating how awesome Charlotte’s version is is giving me the impression there’s not actually all that much going on in Charlotte.

    As far as in-migration goes, I misspoke. Franklin County has had 6 of the last 7 years with a positive net in-migration, with 3 of the 7 having postive domestic in-migration. Those years were 2008, 2009 and 2011. Either way, your claim that there has not been a single year of positive domestic migration is certainly incorrect. A site I use is http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/pop/popc/cnty39049.asp, which is just a nice compilation from the Census.

    #513106

    peter
    Participant

    Columbus OH just needs to become Columbus, I know that sounds strange but after introducing strangers to Columbus and showing them what it has to offer, it has made me realize that they had virtually little or no perception about our great city.

    Couldn’t agree more. I’m started trying to train myself to refer to Columbus as just “Columbus” and not “Columbus, ohio” when people ask me where I live. A small thing, but it can change perceptions over time.

    We only building a small amount of units in the urban areas.

    Say what? There are literally thousands of new units that have come/are coming online in 2012-2013 within 43215 and nearby (eg, 600 goodale). You can hardly turn around without bumping into new construction.

    Now let’s take a young professional who cant afford $1300. But s/he still wants to be relatively close to a nice shopping area. After s/he is young and doesn’t want to live in the middle of nowhere.

    That person would choose to live downtown/arena district. I think that’s pretty clear – occupancy rates are at 98-99% right now. The SN has plllllenty of good shopping.

    So here you can also get a one bedroom for around $900.

    You can still pretty easily get one-bedroom apts in the arena district/SN for about 1000-1100 in Columbus. I think you are exaggerating the price differences between Charlotte and Columbus. And I would argue that high rents are a positive indicator, not a bad thing. People want to live here! Most excellent. Every time I read that rents are increasing, I smile (and not just because I’m a landlord).

    I think you’ll find that once data becomes available for Franklin County for 2011 and 2012, it will show pretty significant migration/growth. People have been moving downtown in the past 2 years in ways that they have not even as recently as 2009-2010, and the best indicator of that is the very significant rent increases sustained during those years.

    One more point on rent – most people I talk to expect rent to stabilize toward the end of 2013 (once a few of the new projects like Flats II and 600 Goodale are leasing). There will be a pretty big jump in supply (not seen previously) and it should curtail the steady rent increases we’ve seen over the last 2-3 years.

    #513107

    InnerCore
    Participant

    F5Equity said:
    Good points innercore, but you have also failed to mention how no perm financing provider is going to finance a large scale urban project in Columbus. Sure the regional banks will finance these small projects here and there, but imagine trying to get Met-Life to finance something in Columbus, not happening. They would finance projects in chartlotte or denver though. The only developments a place like met life might finance around here are strip malls anchored by Wal Mart. Prime example being the strip mall on Bethel anchored by wal mart.

    I touched on that point previously. Columbus is a secondary market and therefore doesn’t get the attention of national developers and investors. This was my big argument for rail. All the secondary markets that national investors and developers are going into have rail.

    It’s much easier to justify going into a secondary market when you’re building next to an expensive rail station that you know isn’t going anywhere and is going to attract residents for decades to come.

    #513108

    F5Equity
    Member
    #513109

    InnerCore
    Participant

    jbcmh81 said:
    Innercore, Columbus has thousands of residential units being built or in the works for the urban core, even if you do not count estimates for neighborhood plans, such as the one for Franklinton. How many thousands does it have to be exactly before you don’t think it’s too few?

    There is a difference between what is planned and what is scheduled for completion. I have submitted to zoning plans for 3 buildings. The reality is that I will probably only end up doing one. Here is a current report for Columbus:

    https://www.marcusmillichap.com/research/reports/Apartment/Columbus_NAR13.pdf

    There are 1,100 units scheduled to be completed in 2013. Now lets compare that to some other cities. And again were talking about the actual number of units scheduled to come on line this year.

    Charlotte: 3,500
    Denver: 4,000
    Austin: 9,000
    Dallas: 12,500
    Seattle: 7,500
    San Antonio: 4,000

    Now some of those Cities are much larger than Columbus. But Charlotte and Austin are both smaller than Columbus (for now) and Charlotte is building about 3 times the number of units and Austin is building 9 times the number of units. And this has been going on for years. Here are the number of complete units over the last 3 years and this years projection:

    Columbus
    2010: 654
    2011: 882
    2012: 650
    2013: 1,100
    Total: 3,286

    Charlotte
    2010: 2,440
    2011: 825
    2012: 900
    2013: 3,500
    Total: 7,665

    Austin
    2010: 2,581
    2011: 256
    2012: 2,200
    2013: 9,000
    Total: 14,037

    Denver
    2010: 2,335
    2011: 838
    2012: 1,600
    2013: 4,000

    You see where this is headed. Most cities have come out of the recession roaring. Why do you think place like Charlotte and Austin are building 3x – 9x the number of units right now. And how do you think that’s going to affect the map if this continues over the next decade?

    jbcmh81 said:
    There are quite a few places that haver lower rents in the urban core areas than $1200-$1300/month, especially for a 1-bedroom. Maybe you’re just not looking hard enough.

    I was comparing apples to apples. There are plenty of places in Charlotte where you can rent for less than that as well. But I was talking about the newer class A buildings in the desirable locations.

    jbcmh81 said:
    And your point about YPers is bizarre. First, why should anyone, let alone YPers, expect affordability in high-demand urban neighborhoods? Charity? A well-known consequence of gentrification is rising rents that price out lower income residents. It may not be ideal, but it’s a reality that is undeniable. Further, if there were more neighborhoods seeing more mixed-use development and increasing urban amenities, what do you think will happen to rents there? They’ll rise, of course. So you’re not arguing for affordability, you’re arguing for the same processes that might price someone out of the Short North, only in different neighborhoods. So if a YPer can’t afford it, too bad, I guess life isn’t fair. We don’t always get what we want or think we deserve. I had to live in Hilltop because that was all I could afford at one time. Getting a brand new 3-bedroom apartment with high-end finishes in the heart of the most vibrant, walkable neighborhoods is not a right.

    So basically you’re argument is a big FU to young people. My argument that is even if someone doesn’t have enough money to live in an desirable area they should at least be able to live in an walkable neighborhood in the hilltop. But again we seem to only be building walkable mixed use communities in the most desirable urban areas only.

    You know I seem to be sensing this argument that things are better than they were so these young kids should be happy. After all its better than what I had back in the say walking 10 miles in the snow. “When I was young I had to live on the Hilltop” Sort of implying that if these young people want more they should just suck it up. But the problem is that other cities are making the changes to provide the lifestyle young people want at affordable pricing. So it’s easy to say hey tough luck if you cant afford to live in the cool urban walkbale neighborhoods the suck it up and move somewhere else that isn’t cool, isn’t walkable, has no quality public transit, etc. But then you put yourself at a disadvantage when other cities say “hey, all you have is $800. That’s no problem we can offer you something in our suburbs that is still urban and walkable”

    It reminds me of the way they used to sell cars. They always made the economy or lower prices cars look very crappy to distinguish them from the higher priced cars. Then they realized that just because people were only paying good money for a lower priced car doesn’t mean they want to ride around in an ugly car. Sure it can’t be as big or have more horsepower, or the premium leather, etc. But you can still make the styling cool.

    You don’t have to have granite countertops, Viking ranges and the best location for every mixed use project. But you need to be able to provide these aspects because that what people today expect.

    jbcmh81 said:
    A walkable environment with lots of people, retail, restaurants… now where does Columbus have that? Oh yeah, you described Easton. Does it need more residential? Absolutely. Repeating how awesome Charlotte’s version is is giving me the impression there’s not actually all that much going on in Charlotte.

    But that just the point, you can’t live AT Easton. The residential in the area is laid out in a fashion where you cant walk. The only one even close to being walkable is Easton Commons. And even it’s not integrated into the area. You don’t feel like you’re in a community you feel like you are walking across the street to a mall. Then the rest of the apartments are built down the road with ZERO chance of walking. No one is going to walk from behind Best Buy or down Stelzer Rd. past nothing but parking lots.

    There are plenty of apartments behind Tuttle Mall within walking distance. But the walk feels weird walking through parking lots with nothing to walk past. Do you really think young people want to live behind a mall, and walk through a parking lot to have drinks at Applebees with their friends??

    And so what are the plans for expansion at Easton? Surprise another strip mall behind a sea of asphalt parking. So not only are do they not have a place where someone could live and have a walkable lifestyle now, but they are moving in the direction of making the area LESS walkable in the future.

    jbcmh81 said:
    As far as in-migration goes, I misspoke. Franklin County has had 6 of the last 7 years with a positive net in-migration, with 3 of the 7 having postive domestic in-migration. Those years were 2008, 2009 and 2011. Either way, your claim that there has not been a single year of positive domestic migration is certainly incorrect. A site I use is http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/pop/popc/cnty39049.asp, which is just a nice compilation from the Census.

    From the link you provide you get these numbers for net domestic migration:

    2001:-2,828
    2002:-7,604
    2003: -6,554
    2004:-8,204
    2005:-7,197
    2006:-3,373
    2007:-2,698
    2008: 298
    2009: 1,907
    2010: -786
    2011: 632
    10 Year total: -36,407

    That info is from the Census where they do surveys. I was going by the IRS data where they look at tax returns to see where people filed as their county of residence in one year versus their county of residence in another. You can find that information here:

    http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats-Migration-Data-Ohio

    I don’t want to split hairs, because as you can see net domestic migration is still very low even by the Census numbers. Is it now positive at 632? Possibly. So I’m wrong that there have been a couple of years of positive net migration. But in a county of 1,178,799 people its not moving much. And for reference here are the numbers from your link for Charlotte:

    2001: 10,573
    2002: 4,912
    2003: 6,521
    2004: 8,627
    2005: 14,669
    2006: 20,827
    2007: 18,563
    2008: 13,508
    2009: 8,299
    2010: 526
    2011: 9,039
    10 Year Total: 116,064

    And Austin is even higher with over 15,000 in net domestic migration in 2011. So you have counties that are smaller than Franklin county and yet they are growing at 15 and 25 times the rate. These are the places that people are choosing to live.

    I don’t think Charlotte is inherently better than Columbus. It’s not like they have some natural feature that people are drawn to. They’re just doing a better job at building environments that people rather live in. We are moving forward, but we definitely need to be doing a better job.

    #513110

    jbcmh81
    Participant

    InnerCore said:

    There is a difference between what is planned and what is scheduled for completion. I have submitted to zoning plans for 3 buildings. The reality is that I will probably only end up doing one. Here is a current report for Columbus:

    https://www.marcusmillichap.com/research/reports/Apartment/Columbus_NAR13.pdf

    There are 1,100 units scheduled to be completed in 2013. Now lets compare that to some other cities. And again were talking about the actual number of units scheduled to come on line this year.

    1,100 units for where? I could see that if it only counted the CBD, but here I thought we were discussing the urban core. I made a list not too long about about projects either under construction or announced. While not every single one of those may come to pass, it still represented several thousand units. I can think of about a dozen projects in the SN alone. And Jeffrey Place will have over 1,300 by itself.

    You see where this is headed. Most cities have come out of the recession roaring. Why do you think place like Charlotte and Austin are building 3x – 9x the number of units right now. And how do you think that’s going to affect the map if this continues over the next decade.

    The handful of cities you mentioned are not “most cities”, and almost all of them have been Sun Belt boom cities for some time now. Columbus is neither, so expecting it to have the same level of construction is absolutely absurd. Why not make the comparison to similar sized cities with similar growth patterns?

    And yes, I’m sensing that for as long as you’re around, we’re headed to having to hear about how much you love Charlotte in every single development thread.

    So basically you’re argument is a big FU to young people. My argument that is even if someone doesn’t have enough money to live in an desirable area they should at least be able to live in an walkable neighborhood in the hilltop. But again we seem to only be building walkable mixed use communities in the most desirable urban areas only.

    But again, making Hilltop walkable would mean a lot of investment and development into the neighborhood, which would gradually make the neighborhood more desirable. Why wouldn’t prices go up there in response? Developers are not going to go into neighborhoods, spend a bunch of money on new development and then keep prices artificially lower than the market just to attract young people. You should know as someone in the business that that’s not how it works. This isn’t about telling young people FU, but why do you think that they should be able to live anywhere they want regardless of whether or not they can afford to?

    You know I seem to be sensing this argument that things are better than they were so these young kids should be happy. After all its better than what I had back in the say walking 10 miles in the snow. “When I was young I had to live on the Hilltop” Sort of implying that if these young people want more they should just suck it up.

    lol, what? No. Just saying that people who don’t have the means should not expect to live in the most desirable areas. Unless you can get developers to build a certain % of lower income housing in a mixed-used neighborhood, market forces are just going to price some people out. This is not new and I’m not behind it, I promise.

    But the problem is that other cities are making the changes to provide the lifestyle young people want at affordable pricing. So it’s easy to say hey tough luck if you cant afford to live in the cool urban walkbale neighborhoods the suck it up and move somewhere else that isn’t cool, isn’t walkable, has no quality public transit, etc. But then you put yourself at a disadvantage when other cities say “hey, all you have is $800. That’s no problem we can offer you something in our suburbs that is still urban and walkable”

    Except that there are places like that in Columbus’ suburbs. And there are still affordable neighborhoods in the urban core. I’m just really not sure what you’re trying to argue.

    It reminds me of the way they used to sell cars. They always made the economy or lower prices cars look very crappy to distinguish them from the higher priced cars. Then they realized that just because people were only paying good money for a lower priced car doesn’t mean they want to ride around in an ugly car. Sure it can’t be as big or have more horsepower, or the premium leather, etc. But you can still make the styling cool.

    You still can’t buy a Ferrari on a Pinto budget, which would be a much better analogy.

    You don’t have to have granite countertops, Viking ranges and the best location for every mixed use project. But you need to be able to provide these aspects because that what people today expect.

    But that just the point, you can’t live AT Easton. The residential in the area is laid out in a fashion where you cant walk. The only one even close to being walkable is Easton Commons. And even it’s not integrated into the area. You don’t feel like you’re in a community you feel like you are walking across the street to a mall. Then the rest of the apartments are built down the road with ZERO chance of walking. No one is going to walk from behind Best Buy or down Stelzer Rd. past nothing but parking lots.

    There are plenty of apartments behind Tuttle Mall within walking distance. But the walk feels weird walking through parking lots with nothing to walk past. Do you really think young people want to live behind a mall, and walk through a parking lot to have drinks at Applebees with their friends??

    And so what are the plans for expansion at Easton? Surprise another strip mall behind a sea of asphalt parking. So not only are do they not have a place where someone could live and have a walkable lifestyle now, but they are moving in the direction of making the area LESS walkable in the future.

    So what you’re saying is, we need a time machine and just rebuild everything? Because otherwise I don’t know what you want me to say here. I already agree that projects should be built better. Continuously harping on the flaws of ones that were built more than a decade ago and then comparing it to projects that made improvements on the design much more recently in other cities just seems like a waste of time. I would much rather put focus on current and future projects. It doesn’t mean that shit won’t ever get built, like Easton Gateway, but I would like to think creating demand for better design will gradually change the mindset. And I’m certainly not going to indulge your constant cynic-fest about how awful you think Columbus is. I’m never going to follow you down that path, so yeah we’re probably always going to find our way into a big disagreement on most likely almost everything.

    From the link you provide you get these numbers for net domestic migration:

    2001:-2,828
    2002:-7,604
    2003: -6,554
    2004:-8,204
    2005:-7,197
    2006:-3,373
    2007:-2,698
    2008: 298
    2009: 1,907
    2010: -786
    2011: 632
    10 Year total: -36,407

    I was going by since 2005, since after that is when these urban trends really began to take shape, especially during the recession years. Glad you agree, though, that there have been positive years recently.

    That info is from the Census where they do surveys. I was going by the IRS data where they look at tax returns to see where people filed as their county of residence in one year versus their county of residence in another. You can find that information here:

    http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats-Migration-Data-Ohio

    I don’t want to split hairs, because as you can see net domestic migration is still very low even by the Census numbers. Is it now positive at 632? Possibly. So I’m wrong that there have been a couple of years of positive net migration. But in a county of 1,178,799 people its not moving much. And for reference here are the numbers from your link for **

    **Cut because I just don’t give a shit about Charlotte or Austin or whatever other city you can’t stop referring to. I understand they’re growing. They should be with the 30%+ growth rates they and other Sun Belt cities have been getting the last decade. Columbus and these cities do not have the same growth patterns or the same challenges, regardless of how similar in size they are right now.

    I don’t think Charlotte is inherently better than Columbus.

    Please, who are you trying to fool?

    It’s not like they have some natural feature that people are drawn to. They’re just doing a better job at building environments that people rather live in. We are moving forward, but we definitely need to be doing a better job.

    If you really think people have been moving to these cities for their urban design, I have a bridge to sell you.

    #513111

    johnwirtz
    Participant

    InnerCore said:
    I don’t think Charlotte is inherently better than Columbus. It’s not like they have some natural feature that people are drawn to. They’re just doing a better job at building environments that people rather live in. We are moving forward, but we definitely need to be doing a better job.

    I think it’s about weather and jobs.

    #513112

    InnerCore
    Participant

    peter said:
    Columbus OH just needs to become Columbus, I know that sounds strange but after introducing strangers to Columbus and showing them what it has to offer, it has made me realize that they had virtually little or no perception about our great city.

    Couldn’t agree more. I’m started trying to train myself to refer to Columbus as just “Columbus” and not “Columbus, ohio” when people ask me where I live. A small thing, but it can change perceptions over time.

    This has nothing to do with the perception of Columbus or it trying to be something else. I’m talking about building communities that people right here in Columbus want to live in. They are building urban, walkable, easily accessible by qaulity transit neighborhoods in Austin, Charlotte, Denver, Seattle, etc. Are all of these cities trying to be like one another? No, in Austin the mixed use neighborhoods have different architecture, local restaurants and bars, etc than the ones in Charlotte. They all have their own unique feel. But they all also provide the lifestyle that young people want to lead.

    peter said:
    Say what? There are literally thousands of new units that have come/are coming online in 2012-2013 within 43215 and nearby (eg, 600 goodale). You can hardly turn around without bumping into new construction.

    Actually there are 1,750 units set to come online between 2012-2013 so I wouldn’t call that thousand(s). But regardless as you can see from the previous post this is a very small amount and still low compared to historical trends. The good news is that those completions are happening in more urban areas.

    And while I welcome a project like 600 Goodale and rather have a new project there instead of Hillard let’s not kid ourselves about it being walkable. No one is going to walk down Goodale across 315 to Jason’s Deli. We just bringing the suburban projects closer in so people have to drive less, but were still not creating the walkable environment people want.

    peter said:
    That person would choose to live downtown/arena district. I think that’s pretty clear – occupancy rates are at 98-99% right now. The SN has plllllenty of good shopping.

    The SN doesn’t have much real shopping. I’m talking about real shopping for most of you’re needs and not novelty shopping.

    peter said:
    You can still pretty easily get one-bedroom apts in the arena district/SN for about 1000-1100 in Columbus. I think you are exaggerating the price differences between Charlotte and Columbus. And I would argue that high rents are a positive indicator, not a bad thing. People want to live here! Most excellent. Every time I read that rents are increasing, I smile (and not just because I’m a landlord).

    Again I’m trying to compare apples to apples. You can find a host of 1 bedrooms for varying price in both locations. So comparing similar quality and vintage apartments in similar quality locations makes a better comparison. Name me one quality professionally managed apartment community with drastically different pricing.

    peter said:
    I think you’ll find that once data becomes available for Franklin County for 2011 and 2012, it will show pretty significant migration/growth. People have been moving downtown in the past 2 years in ways that they have not even as recently as 2009-2010, and the best indicator of that is the very significant rent increases sustained during those years.

    People tend to move to the newer areas where new units are being built. The vast majority of the growth downtown and the surround areas is simply coming form people already living in Franklin County choosing to live there instead of the suburbs. People aren’t packing up in the rest of the country and moving to downtown Columbus. Don’t get me wrong, this is good for downtown and I’m excited about that. But the whole city can’t sit on the shoulders of downtown and SN.

    peter said:
    One more point on rent – most people I talk to expect rent to stabilize toward the end of 2013 (once a few of the new projects like Flats II and 600 Goodale are leasing). There will be a pretty big jump in supply (not seen previously) and it should curtail the steady rent increases we’ve seen over the last 2-3 years.

    As I pointed out this wont be a significant jump in supply compared to historical levels. For example between 2004 and 2006 we delivered an average of about 1,500 units per year. And that is at a time with far less growth. During the recession multifamily construction grinded to hault so we went years without building adequate new supply. That’s my you see basically the rest of America shooting back up in 2013 to try and catch up. Meanwhile were still putting along with about 1,000 units. Most professional predict over 3% effective rent growth.

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