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Housing Value Change showing Gentrification?

Home Forums General Columbus Discussion Housing Value Change showing Gentrification?

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  • #99763

    jbcmh81
    Participant
    #554932
    Walker Evans
    Walker Evans
    Keymaster

    Cool post (and great blog – subscribed!) though I have one minor issue…

    Many definitions of the word “gentrification” indicate a replacement/displacement of a poorer population with a wealthier population.

    That may be the case in some areas where populations were already dense in 2000 (Short North) but less the case in areas with lower population in 2000 (Downtown, Near East Side, Franklinton).

    Downtown in particular is an interesting case study, as nearly all of the increase in population has been through new build construction that replaces parking lots, or the conversion of warehouse/office space into residential space. No one is displaced in the process, yet the medium home value climbs drastically.

    I live on the Near East Side and our zip code (43203) is at a historic low in terms of total population and population density. Which means that there’s a lot of room to add new residents in the coming decades without necessarily displacing anyone.

    Just my 2 cents.

    #554933

    sirlancelot
    Participant

    Walker indicates that gentrification is less of an issue in areas where there is less population density. Density is not the real issue. Rather, it is the conversion and renovation of older housing stock to make them more profitable, or creation of additional but more expensive housing. gentrification means housing marketed toward upper income people.

    The Near East Side may have lower population density but the housing stock is predominately older, thus less expensive and more affordable to lower income people. As that area becomes gentrified, the housing stock will become more valuable and thus less affordable to the current low income residents. This is what happened in German Village.

    The situation begs the question of where all of these low income people will live. A reduction in habitable, affordable housing has huge social implications which include increasing crime and homelessness. Note the Columbus Dispatch articles on problem landlords, lack of affordable housing and the increase of homelessness here.

    By the way, I lived for 16 years in downtown Columbus and recently relocated outside the city. While I appreciate the continued development of downtown, it has become too expensive for people like me.

    #554934

    sirlancelot
    Participant

    sirlancelot said:
    Walker indicates that gentrification is less of an issue in areas where there is less population density. Density is not the real issue. Rather, it is the conversion and renovation of older housing stock to make them more profitable, or creation of additional but more expensive housing. Gentrification means housing marketed toward upper income people.

    The Near East Side may have lower population density but the housing stock is predominately older, thus less expensive and more affordable to lower income people. As that area becomes gentrified, the housing stock will become more valuable and thus less affordable to the current low income residents. This is what happened in German Village.

    The situation begs the question of where all of these low income people will live. A reduction in habitable, affordable housing has huge social implications which include increasing crime and homelessness. Note the Columbus Dispatch articles on problem landlords, lack of affordable housing and the increase of homelessness here.

    By the way, I lived for 16 years in downtown Columbus and recently relocated outside the city. While I appreciate the continued development of downtown, it has become too expensive for people like me.

    #554935
    Walker Evans
    Walker Evans
    Keymaster

    sirlancelot said:
    Walker indicates that gentrification is less of an issue in areas where there is less population density. Density is not the real issue. Rather, it is the conversion and renovation of older housing stock to make them more profitable, or creation of additional but more expensive housing.

    But again, in an area like Downtown, much of the new product that’s come online in the past decade is new build or conversion from other uses (office/industrial) and not the renovation of older housing stock. They are expensive units coming online, but they’re not replacing cheaper units. They’re replacing things like vacant office buildings and surface parking lots.

    sirlancelot said:
    The Near East Side may have lower population density but the housing stock is predominately older, thus less expensive and more affordable to lower income people. As that area becomes gentrified, the housing stock will become more valuable and thus less affordable to the current low income residents.

    My point in mentioning the Near East Side is that “current low income residents” make up a fraction of the historic population for the area. The 2010 census says there’s 8,900 people living in 43203. I’m struggling to find the link (will search more tonight) to show the historic population, but I want to say it was pegged around 30,000 at its height. Part of that has to do with smaller household sizes, but much of that has to do with demolition and abandonment. There’s a lot of infill and restoration that can be done before existing populations will be displaced like they were in German Village. Hell, German Village took 40-50 years to get where it is.

    sirlancelot said:
    The situation begs the question of where all of these low income people will live.

    They’ll spread out to the suburbs obviously. ;) That’s where home values are declining for the most part according to the data.

    #554936

    jbcmh81
    Participant

    sirlancelot said:
    Walker indicates that gentrification is less of an issue in areas where there is less population density. Density is not the real issue. Rather, it is the conversion and renovation of older housing stock to make them more profitable, or creation of additional but more expensive housing. gentrification means housing marketed toward upper income people.

    The Near East Side may have lower population density but the housing stock is predominately older, thus less expensive and more affordable to lower income people. As that area becomes gentrified, the housing stock will become more valuable and thus less affordable to the current low income residents. This is what happened in German Village.

    The situation begs the question of where all of these low income people will live. A reduction in habitable, affordable housing has huge social implications which include increasing crime and homelessness. Note the Columbus Dispatch articles on problem landlords, lack of affordable housing and the increase of homelessness here.

    By the way, I lived for 16 years in downtown Columbus and recently relocated outside the city. While I appreciate the continued development of downtown, it has become too expensive for people like me.

    The answer to where they might be moving may be partially answered in these maps:

    1990 Black Population
    http://allcolumbusdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/blackpopulation1990.png
    2010 Black Population
    http://allcolumbusdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/blackpopulation2010.png

    It seems to me that they’re heading for the far eastern suburbs, and also directly north along Morse.

    #554937

    lattethunder
    Participant

    jbcmh81 said:
    The answer to where they might be moving may be partially answered in these maps:

    1990 Black Population
    http://allcolumbusdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/blackpopulation1990.png
    2010 Black Population
    http://allcolumbusdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/blackpopulation2010.png

    It seems to me that they’re heading for the far eastern suburbs, and also directly north along Morse.

    The black population is not synonymous with the low income population. Wealthier black people have been moving to northern/eastern suburbs for a long time now (at least since my grandparents were middle aged) and you can see quite of the original historically black suburban developments around the Easton area.

    #554938

    GCrites80s
    Participant

    jbcmh81 said:
    The answer to where they might be moving may be partially answered in these maps:

    1990 Black Population
    http://allcolumbusdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/blackpopulation1990.png
    2010 Black Population
    http://allcolumbusdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/blackpopulation2010.png

    It seems to me that they’re heading for the far eastern suburbs, and also directly north along Morse.

    Into on average, much newer housing stock from the ’80s, ’90s and 2000s than is seen in the NES, which was the largest black neighborhood of the last half of the 20th century.

    #554939

    jbcmh81
    Participant

    lattethunder said:
    The black population is not synonymous with the low income population. Wealthier black people have been moving to northern/eastern suburbs for a long time now (at least since my grandparents were middle aged) and you can see quite of the original historically black suburban developments around the Easton area.

    Except that the black population is dropping in those areas seeing the most gentrification, like the Near East Side, and yes, Easton. While, of course, black doesn’t automatically mean low-income, why specifically do you feel like they’re moving away from the core areas they used to live? And I did say partially.

    Maybe a better set of maps would be black population % change rather than % of population. I don’t have those complete, yet, however.

    #554940

    GCrites80s
    Participant

    lattethunder said:
    The black population is not synonymous with the low income population. Wealthier black people have been moving to northern/eastern suburbs for a long time now (at least since my grandparents were middle aged) and you can see quite of the original historically black suburban developments around the Easton area.

    Yes, I saw a study done a few years ago that equated increased white population with gentrification. It’s not gentrification if poor black people get replaced with poor white people. I was all

    #554941

    jbcmh81
    Participant

    GCrites80s said:
    Yes, I saw a study done a few years ago that equated increased white population with gentrification. It’s not gentrification if poor black people get replaced with poor white people. I was all

    Are the white people moving into say, OTE, at the same income level as those people moving away?

    #554942

    GCrites80s
    Participant

    Not in that particular situation, but there are situations that the study I described above would have been wrong. I can think of one small part of Columbus which was formerly low income black residents until 1950-60 or so then low-income white residents from 1960ish- to 2012 when it began to gentrify — with probably a more diverse population than there was before from 1960-2012.

    #554943

    lattethunder
    Participant

    jbcmh81 said:
    Except that the black population is dropping in those areas seeing the most gentrification, like the Near East Side, and yes, Easton. While, of course, black doesn’t automatically mean low-income, why specifically do you feel like they’re moving away from the core areas they used to live? And I did say partially.

    Maybe a better set of maps would be black population % change rather than % of population. I don’t have those complete, yet, however.

    Ok, so Gentrification is the act of richer people moving into poorer areas and therefore driving up rents and driving poor people out. It has NOTHING to do with the race of those people. If a ton of Rich black people move to Franklinton, that’s STILL gentrification. If a ton of rich black people move to KLD, that’s also gentrification. It doesn’t really matter if the black population is leaving the area or not. It’s whether the poor population is forced to leave due to rents or some other breakdown on community. It tends to get lumped into integration issues (and fairly so) but it’s not an intrinsically racial thing.

    So why are black people leaving? Well, Black flight is a thing. It’s been a thing for decades now. It doesn’t get the same amount of attention as white flight does, for whatever reason, but black people have been leaving the city core for some time.

    People with money have been leaving cities since WWII; proportionally in the 60s and 70s black people were largely poorer so there was less flight. Many more Black people have moved into the middle class recently, and as such many have moved to the suburbs. Basically, black people move for the same reason white people do.

    As an anecdote, a former boss and his wife, a well off black couple both with graduate degrees, sold the OTE home their family had lived in for a couple generations in exchange for a new build in Pickerington. It’s happening.

    #554944

    Lu
    Participant

    My guess is that black people are moving to the suburbs for the same reason whites are moving to urban areas: nobody wants to live where they grew up. Whites want to escape the boring, homogenous suburban neighborhoods and long commutes where they grew up. They want to live on a street with character and the ability to walk places. Blacks want to leave the claustrophobic neighborhoods and urban schools where they grew up. They want space, safe neighborhoods, and good schools for their kids.

    #554945

    arobinbird
    Participant

    I am inclined to agree and would say they feel they have better schools, safer neighborhoods. I think for blacks, it becomes those who have choices and can want to live the suburbs, which they feel may be safer for their families and have better schools, same reasons as whites.

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