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2015 Columbus Metro and County Population Estimates

Home Forums General Columbus Discussion Development 2015 Columbus Metro and County Population Estimates

This topic contains 31 replies, has 13 voices, and was last updated by  NEOBuckeye 3 years, 4 months ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 32 total)
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  • #1119921
    Walker Evans
    Walker Evans
    Keymaster

    Also where the hell are all of these people moving to? We don’t seem to be building enough housing to take in 90,000 more people in the last five years in Franklin County? Which makes you wonder even more about the ‘relative’ lack of growth of our downtown housing situation.

    Here on CU, we generally just report on urban/dense development, both in/around Downtown and in the suburban communities (like Dublin) who are building urban.

    What I think falls off the radar a bit are the large numbers of suburban-style apartment and home building projects around the county and region that continue to roll in. Of the five largest apartment communities to be completed in 2015, one was in Hilliard, one was on Bethel Road, one was in New Albany, one was at Polaris, and one was in Grandview Yard:

    https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/the-largest-new-rentals-delivered-in-columbus-in-2015/

    #1119940

    6a
    Participant

    Apparently this is all a bit too much to take for Cincy guy who hates Columbus (in comments):

    http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/03/25/columbus-metro-area-surpasses-2-million-mark-in-population.html

    I never have understood this argument. Yeah, sorry we took steps to avoid being hemmed in like Cleveland. How dare we capture the growth we created…some nerve.

    #1119947

    jbcmh81
    Participant

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>WJT wrote:</div>
    Also where the hell are all of these people moving to? We don’t seem to be building enough housing to take in 90,000 more people in the last five years in Franklin County? Which makes you wonder even more about the ‘relative’ lack of growth of our downtown housing situation.

    Here on CU, we generally just report on urban/dense development, both in/around Downtown and in the suburban communities (like Dublin) who are building urban.

    What I think falls off the radar a bit are the large numbers of suburban-style apartment and home building projects around the county and region that continue to roll in. Of the five largest apartment communities to be completed in 2015, one was in Hilliard, one was on Bethel Road, one was in New Albany, one was at Polaris, and one was in Grandview Yard:

    https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/the-largest-new-rentals-delivered-in-columbus-in-2015/

    I also think one has to consider existing vacant housing. I thought of that Old Oaks neighborhood article that said housing vacancy rates had fallen by more than 50% in the last 3-4 years. I suspect that a lot of neighborhoods are seeing occupancy improvements, especially considering construction is well under the level to sustain the current population growth. Even the suburbs are seeing relatively little single-family and apartment housing construction compared to what it was in say, 2005. And Columbus is growing faster now than in the 2000s. The growth rate has effectively nearly doubled in Franklin County this decade- It grew by just over 94,000 during the 2000s, and this decade has grown by 88,000 already. It is on pace to add almost 170,000-180,000 people by 2020 all by itself. That number would be respectable for an entire metro area, let alone the core county. Basically, Franklin County is booming.

    #1119953

    WJT
    Participant

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Walker Evans wrote:</div>

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>WJT wrote:</div><br>
    Also where the hell are all of these people moving to? We don’t seem to be building enough housing to take in 90,000 more people in the last five years in Franklin County? Which makes you wonder even more about the ‘relative’ lack of growth of our downtown housing situation.

    Here on CU, we generally just report on urban/dense development, both in/around Downtown and in the suburban communities (like Dublin) who are building urban.

    What I think falls off the radar a bit are the large numbers of suburban-style apartment and home building projects around the county and region that continue to roll in. Of the five largest apartment communities to be completed in 2015, one was in Hilliard, one was on Bethel Road, one was in New Albany, one was at Polaris, and one was in Grandview Yard:

    https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/the-largest-new-rentals-delivered-in-columbus-in-2015/

    I also think one has to consider existing vacant housing. I thought of that Old Oaks neighborhood article that said housing vacancy rates had fallen by more than 50% in the last 3-4 years. I suspect that a lot of neighborhoods are seeing occupancy improvements, especially considering construction is well under the level to sustain the current population growth. Even the suburbs are seeing relatively little single-family and apartment housing construction compared to what it was in say, 2005. And Columbus is growing faster now than in the 2000s. The growth rate has effectively nearly doubled in Franklin County this decade- It grew by just over 94,000 during the 2000s, and this decade has grown by 88,000 already. It is on pace to add almost 170,000-180,000 people by 2020 all by itself. That number would be respectable for an entire metro area, let alone the core county. Basically, Franklin County is booming.

    I realize as Walker indicated that housing is being constructed, but like you mention, it just does not seem to be on the level that the population growth would suggest. Maybe ‘vacancies’ are being filled as you suggest (particularly after the Great Recession and housing bust) and when that is done the building will have to start increasing…either that or the estimates may be a bit optimistic. Only time will tell. If the info is correct the housing unit construction is going to have to pick up big time at some point-there are only so many vacancies to go around.

    Don’t want to end up with a shortage and see rents start skyrocketing. People online have been complaining about the growth in Austin and how the traffic is now a nightmare and the cost of living is exploding with the rapid growth. There is a down side to such rapid growth if you do not anticipate and adjust for it.

    #1119956

    ohbr
    Participant

    Are we overlooking births? I wonder if and how that affects these numbers.

    As for housing shortage… it’s probably coming and some places, it’s already the reality.

    http://www.vox.com/2016/3/24/11299434/next-housing-crisis

    #1119959

    jbcmh81
    Participant

    Are we overlooking births? I wonder if and how that affects these numbers.

    As for housing shortage… it’s probably coming and some places, it’s already the reality.

    http://www.vox.com/2016/3/24/11299434/next-housing-crisis

    http://allcolumbusdata.com/?p=5115

    #1119960

    jbcmh81
    Participant

    Are we overlooking births? I wonder if and how that affects these numbers.

    As for housing shortage… it’s probably coming and some places, it’s already the reality.

    http://www.vox.com/2016/3/24/11299434/next-housing-crisis

    http://allcolumbusdata.com/?p=5115

    My post on the metro area, including stuff on births. The metro actually has a good natural growth rate.

    #1119963

    NEOBuckeye
    Participant

    I realize as Walker indicated that housing is being constructed, but like you mention, it just does not seem to be on the level that the population growth would suggest. Maybe ‘vacancies’ are being filled as you suggest (particularly after the Great Recession and housing bust) and when that is done the building will have to start increasing…either that or the estimates may be a bit optimistic. Only time will tell. If the info is correct the housing unit construction is going to have to pick up big time at some point-there are only so many vacancies to go around.

    Don’t want to end up with a shortage and see rents start skyrocketing. People online have been complaining about the growth in Austin and how the traffic is now a nightmare and the cost of living is exploding with the rapid growth. There is a down side to such rapid growth if you do not anticipate and adjust for it.

    Rents are already skyrocketing here despite the current construction boom, even for older apartments that don’t have all the bells and whistles of the newer units going up like weeds all over the place. It seems mere proximity to new construction is enough to lead to a rent hike, something I’ve personally experienced. Demand probably does have something to do with it, but it’s not the whole story. Some of it comes down to the complex owners themselves seeing that they can make even more $$$$ on leases through marketing and the brand/image of the city as a trendy place to be.

    Other cost of living components in Columbus/Central Ohio haven’t gone up dramatically (yet) but if things keep pace here, I’m sure it’s only a matter of time.

    Transport-wise, Columbus isn’t ready for 500k more people to move here in the next 20-30 or so years, but probably nothing will be done about it until our roads and highways are truly gridlocked, even on weekends, and then relief will be even further off than what it might have been had we really been interested in planning ahead. It is so maddeningly typical of ‘Murica that we wait until the eleventh hour to finally address what we should have been doing all along.

    #1120064

    RedStorm
    Participant

    Some interesting data on the states…Ohio is, well, doing pretty awful.

    The state as a whole only added ~16K residents last year. That’s worse than North Dakota. Percentage-wise, the 0.1416% yearly growth for Ohio is 40th among the 50 states.

    Since the 2010 census, Ohio has added ~77K residents. That makes for the eighth-worst growth percentage in the country. The ~77K in total puts Ohio on par with states like Hawaii and Iowa, both of which have much smaller population bases to begin with.

    The natural growth of Columbus alone would account for 85% of Ohio’s total population increase since 2010.

    #1120066

    jbcmh81
    Participant

    Some interesting data on the states…Ohio is, well, doing pretty awful.

    The state as a whole only added ~16K residents last year. That’s worse than North Dakota. Percentage-wise, the 0.1416% yearly growth for Ohio is 40th among the 50 states.

    Since the 2010 census, Ohio has added ~77K residents. That makes for the eighth-worst growth percentage in the country. The ~77K in total puts Ohio on par with states like Hawaii and Iowa, both of which have much smaller population bases to begin with.

    The natural growth of Columbus alone would account for 85% of Ohio’s total population increase since 2010.

    I have found that Ohio tends to see its population being underestimated, though. While not growing fast- and Columbus very likely represents a large chunk of the state’s growth- Ohio is probably doing better than what the estimates are showing.

    #1120085
    _calebross
    _calebross
    Participant

    Census estimates are always usually conservative.

    #1127352

    heresthecasey
    Participant

    The city proper estimates are out today from the census bureau, with Columbus projected to have gained 12,175 Y-O-Y to 850,106.

    #1127355

    WJT
    Participant

    The city proper estimates are out today from the census bureau, with Columbus projected to have gained 12,175 Y-O-Y to 850,106.

    Great news! Keeping right up with the 11-12,000 per year growth.

    Since 2010, We have gone from being over 30,000 under Indianapolis to being just 3,000 under. We added 12,000, they added 4,000. We are probably past Indy at this point in 2016.

    Where have we put the nearly 62,000 plus people since 2010?

    #1127440

    jbcmh81
    Participant

    It’s slower than the last few years, but I suspect that that number will be revised upwards in the next estimate, so it’s likely more steady in the 13K range.

    #1127445

    NEOBuckeye
    Participant

    At this rate, Columbus’ population will be at 900k by 2020. Barring any dramatic changes in current trends, we could very easily see 1 million people within the city proper limits before 2030.

    It will be curious to see what impact Columbus’ continued growth has on the rest of the state, and on the multi-state region in general. Columbus and Indianapolis remain the only two major Midwestern cities that have been seeing steady population growth from decade to decade. Even Chicago has stagnated and lost population in recent years, and is actually in danger now of being overtaken by Houston as the third largest US city.

    At some point, I wonder if Cleveland and Cincinnati seek to take one or more drastic measures to avoid becoming complete afterthoughts in a state where the capital has become the principal city on so many fronts and no longer merely serves as the seat of state government. As politically untenable as city-county consolidations and between-city mergers have been, Dayton being only the latest to stop a proposal dead in its tracks, I can’t help but think that both NE and SW Ohio, and perhaps Toledo/NW Ohio as well will eventually look at and finally act on these, and even more radical restructuring measures of some kind, just to stay relevant and viable as metropolitan areas, and other rust belt cities outside of Ohio like Pittsburgh and Buffalo may very well join them, or even pave the way. Declining suburbs and crumbling infrastructure will each exact huge tolls on take a huge toll on political barriers to change.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 32 total)

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