Clinton’s Lead Widens over Trump After First Debate
According to the latest polling data, presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has managed to regain a strong lead over her rival Donald Trump in the six days following the first head-to-head debate between the two. Aggregate information analysis site FiveThirtyEight shows that Clinton’s chances of winning have jumped from 54.8 percent on September 26th to 72.8 percent as of today.
The polling decline for Trump can likely be chalked up to a series of missteps made over the past week, including an underwhelming performance at the debate, a renewed string of attacks on former Miss Universe Alicia Machado, and a revelation that Trump has reportedly dodged paying income tax for nearly two decades.
“Here’s what we know: Hillary Clinton is leading in the race for president, and she’s made meaningful gains since last week’s presidential debate,” stated FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver in an update published yesterday. “Out of 20 post-debate polls in swing states, she’s led in 18, trailed in only one and was tied in one other. Overall, the post-debate polls look a lot like the results that President Obama had against Mitt Romney in the 2012 election, although with Ohio and North Carolina flipping sides.”
Here in Ohio, Trump maintains a lead, although it has also narrowed over the past week. On September 26th, his likelyhood of winning Ohio was forecast at 62 percent by FiveThirtyEight, while today it only stands at a 51.5 percent chance. That represents only a 0.1 percent lead in current projected vote share.
For more information, visit projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/.