Governor John Kasich will not debate Ed Fitzgerald, marking the first time in 36 years that two candidates for the Ohio governorship have not faced each other on the issues. Both campaigns have largely blamed the other for the lapse in democratic tradition, but it’s clear that Fitzgerald stands to lose more than Kasich. The debate represented the Cuyahoga County executive’s last gasp of air after his campaign’s implosion this summer. Kasich’s rejection of the debate will leave his opponent soundly choked.
Perhaps not the most sportsmanlike of political moves, but Kasich and his campaign are within their rights to skip a public battle with someone who is definitely not going to be the governor of Ohio, debate or no debate. It’s probably not easy negotiating details with a campaign that has little organized leadership and next to zero backing from the Democratic Party. Even so, the move could haunt Kasich if he decides to seek higher office in two years.
Kasich has already told 10TV he’s “not interested” in running for president, but that’s okay; technically speaking, neither is Hillary Clinton. But after he routs Fitzgerald in November, Kasich will be an overall successful, moderately popular two-term governor of a Midwestern swing state. Interests change easy with those odds.
If the last few go-rounds are any indication, the 2016 Republican primary will be a bloody war of attrition where anything goes. Kasich will surely face questions as to his conservative credentials, particularly due to his expansion of Medicaid. He can also expect some hits from law-and-order Republicans for his comments in 2011 referring to a police officer as an “idiot,” an incident which, coupled with his anti-union Senate Bill 5, earned Fitzgerald the Fraternal Order of Police endorsement.
Now, in addition to all of that, other contenders for the GOP nomination can ask the question, “If John Kasich won’t debate a county executive, how can he debate Hillary Clinton?”
Clinton’s husband once said, “Democrats want to fall in love and Republicans want to fall in line.” One way or another, every GOP primary really boils down to electability. If Republican primary voters think Kasich’s success in Ohio puts him in good swing state position against the former Secretary of State, he might have a solid chance. But an opponent could just as easily point out that back in 2014, even when he was so far ahead as to be uncatchable, John Kasich was so unsure of his ability to defend his own principles that he declined to participate in one of the staples of American democracy; the public debate.
Is that assessment fair? Probably not. But neither are Republican primaries.
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