The headline from the New York Times reads “How Stable Are Democracies? Warning Signs Are Flashing Red.” The Times was reporting about a study that will appear in the Journal of Democracy, and the conclusion of the authors looks particularly bleak.
Yascha Mounk and Roberto Stefan Foa were looking at data from the longitudinal World Values Surveys, and claim that the percentage of people in Western democracies who respond that it is essential that they live in a democracy is declining, and the decline in such democratic feeling is especially pronounced among young people, those born since the 1980s.
This research has come at a particularly unnerving time in Western democracies. Donald Trump, who some label an authoritarian, would seem to represent a threat to democratic institutions and practices. Far-right populists like Marine Le Pen in France and the UKIP in the United Kingdom are gaining in popularity across Western Europe. These examples, taken with the conclusion that young people might be less democratically-inclined, suggest that there is an emerging climate of anti-democratic feeling. Authoritarians who might have been derided a generation ago now might be finding a more receptive audience.
“Not so fast,” the political scientists have chimed in. There are other ways to read the survey data. Mounk and Foa, for example, were recording only those who said that it was absolutely essential to live in a democracy. Survey respondents were given a 10-point scale, 10 being “absolutely essential” to live in a democracy. If one looks only at those respondents who responded with a 10, as Mounk and Foa did, then yes, the numbers would appear to be declining, and especially so among Millennials.
But other political scientists have instead taken the average of the results, not just those who replied with a 10, and these results do not appear so troubling. There remains wide-spread enthusiasm for living in democracies. I have been especially persuaded by the results generated by James Bach, who blogs at “Statistics and Politics.”
“While it is clear that, in the six countries examined by Mounk and Foa, younger respondents were cooler towards democracy than older cohorts, we should be clear that, in each country, all age groups exhibited tremendous enthusiasm for living in a democracy,” states Bach. “And, given that the data is but one snapshot in time, it is unclear whether younger people in general are less enthusiastic about democracy, or simply become more so as they age.”
Younger people are still enthusiastic about living in a democracy, perhaps only slightly less so that older people.
Indeed, when we look at average responses it would seem that across a number of countries — not just Western democracies — there is a widespread belief that it is important to live in a democracy. And when we consider all of the countries in the survey, all generations would seem to agree, as the lines for each country appear flat. It would seem that a preference for democracy would therefore appear to be a world-wide phenomenon.
It is notable, however, that there are slight dips in some of the countries surveyed, dips at the “young” end of the spectrum, and these tend to be located in Western countries, especially Anglophone countries. (Why that might be is not clear at the moment). Could this suggest less of a commitment to democracy among those under the age of 40 in these countries? If that is the case, how will these feelings be manifest over the next few election cycles?
Democracy is perhaps the most fragile form of government. Over the long sweep of history, authoritarian theocracy has been the most prevalent form of government, almost a default setting for how societies have governed themselves. The number of democracies in human history has been relatively few, but increasingly prevalent since the beginning of the 20th century. There is no guarantee that because a country is a democracy today that it will remain so in the future. The simplicity of authoritarianism is far more alluring than the complexity of democracy. Without the will to maintain it, a democracy cannot last.
David Staley is president of Columbus Futurists and a professor of history, design and educational studies at The Ohio State University. He is the host of CreativeMornings Columbus.
The next Columbus Futurists monthly forum will be Thursday January 19 at 6:30 PM at the Panera Bread community room at 875 Bethel Road.