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Last month NRI announced the start of Phase One of the massive Grandview Yard development, which would include a new hotel, gym, offices, and parking deck on the freshly cleared site of the former Big Bear warehouse facilities.
Yesterday, the Grandview Watch website posted up some thoughts titled “How Grandview Yard could fail – and bring down the schools” which takes a look at a few potentially worrisome scenarios. Does anyone have any thoughts on the likelihood of any of these not-so-optimal conditions occurring for this development?
I agree that Grandview Yard being located in downtown’s backyard will come at the expense of more retail downtown. However, as we have seen through the development of Tuttle, Easton and Polaris, there is only so much retail that can be supported for the given population of Columbus.
@jpizzow – “I’m tired of hearing the constant whining.” I am 100% with you on this. Negativity, whining, making wild speculations about the future brings nothing to the table and I’m tired of it.
gk Says: I agree that Grandview Yard being located in downtown’s backyard will come at the expense of more retail downtown.
At the expense of big box or chain retail, perhaps… but we’re already seeing smaller entrepreneurial retail start to return Downtown. I don’t think that type of Downtown retail is going to be too hurt too badly by Grandview Yard, and I do think Downtown will be better off with the more unique type of businesses setting up there instead.
I wondered what happened to that post when I read the read count this morning – the CU effect. I’m not impressed with the reading comprehension of CU commenters.
The article was based on a scenario told to me by a city council member. It has little to do with my personal guesses on the economy (and no one on CU seems to have followed the link where I support my economic projections). I guess this is where the “dismal science†part of Economics came from, if you project anything but blue skies you have people who think the one making the projection is depressed, or has some personal reason to want failure. The people who correctly called our present economic problems were not debby downers, they were realists who saw the future with clear vision. If you have better economic projections, post the links.
The second part of the article was about the school system. Again, did anyone follow the link to the NYT article about the landmark desegregation agreement? This has been followed by the city leaders in Grandview and they are speculating how it could effect the city. It is not a “OMG we are doomed†projection, it is a possibility that has to be considered.
I would be interested in reading comments from CU members who have read all the links and have something more than gut reactions to a skim reading of my post.
I’m not speaking about big box or chain retail downtown. I’m talking about the mom and pop establishments, such as Woodhouse Lynch, Oullette Jewelers, etc. which have disappeared over the last several years without any replacement. While there have been some additional Subways and other small eateries that have opened downtown, I can’t think of any men or women’s clothing stores, for example, that have opened or remain in our city center.
Is the Grandview Yards location really that prime? I guess for me prime would mean you could take an inspiring walk there from a densely populated community without getting mowed down by a car.
What I see is a location smack dab in the middle of an uninspiring industrial wasteland that happens to have a lot of cars flying by.
I don’t get the constant defection from one thing and attraction to something new like this here.
Make GY a rail stop on the Columbus Light Rail Line. Success for decades to come.
A few comments on the affordable housing/deseg lawsuit (I work on this issue professionaly).
I find the possibility of affordable housing production on the site pretty unrealistic. (But, I do feel a little affordable housing interspersed with the other components of the project would be a positive thing (that is if it still has a residential component).
LIHTC (Low Income Housing Tax Credit) would probably be the only program that could be used to develop a site that large and it would still have to comply with zoning, etc. The odds of that scenario would be pretty slim in my opinion. Plus, I’m not sure about the size of the site, but in my recollection its fairly large and a affordable housing developments of that size are not too common these days. (the days of the superblock public housing developments are over…thankfully).
The deseg lawsuit is interesting and a compelling case (and I like the decision), but there are dozens of deseg fair housing & education deseg lawsuits in the past two decades. I wouldn’t foresee this one case dramatically transforming things. (I have been involved in a case in Baltimore since 2003, it was first filed in 1996, to give you perspective how long this things take to process through courts and implement in their respective city).
thepiece, thanks for the professional viewpoint.
I’m unclear on how change in Fed housing programs comes about. If every individual community gets to take the Feds to court and engage it in decades long battles, doesn’t a body of decisions get established that will predict the future of new lawsuits? There should be a point where everyone knows what the outcome will be, so new lawsuits are just a waste of money.
Or is this delay in the courts a feature that is part of housing policy?
GW_Justice:
I read both of the articles you linked in that article. Neither appeared to be a “link supporting your economic projections.” In fact, since you were just relating a scenario told to you be a GH council member, I didn’t see that you made any economic projections.
Also, I still don’t see how the racial makeup of GH, or the capacity of the school system, is going to impact whether GY succeeds or fails.
“The preceding was a speculated future that has somewhere between 10 and 90 percent chance of happening.â€Â
Why such a large range?
gramerye, you didn’t think the Atlantic story had some good solutions to problems in the financial sector? And that how we deal with the “zombie banks” is a predictor of how we will recover?
I have to work on my car – replacing the tie rod ends and such – back later tonight.
gk Says: I can’t think of any men or women’s clothing stores, for example, that have opened or remain in our city center.
Well, that’s a whole other issue that has nothing to do with Grandview Yard.
You are right about one thing anything CAN happen it is a matter of what will happen. In the article there is this desire to paint the current U.S. economy as being similar to russia in the 90s or other smaller “emerging” markets. This is just a bad comparison, the structure of the US economic system is WAY differant from Russia’s. Now what you are starting to see is countries like Russia, China, India and Brazil meeting and discussing trade in something other then the dollar. Although this would have a HUGE impact on the dollar, I don’t see it happening because I don’t see China shooting themselves in the foot, and to help prevent this we have printed off so much money that if it were to occur we would have such hyperinflation that the government could easily sell resources and pay off its bonds, all the while starting to issue commoditity-backed securities.
But these gobal economic problems will not hit Ohio the same way. Yes we have lost a lot of jobs, and yes the city and state bond sales haven’t gone as well as people would like. But as far as I know we steered clear of ARS(Auction Rate Securities) and the like which really harmed other municipalities. Columbus is also very diverse so when the rest of Ohio is dying, Columbus is thriving.
Anyway I am getting off topic this is a local matter and as such it will behave differantly then on a more macro (such as national) level. I like the person that said if you can afford it, build it because if hyperinflation does occur, at least you still have a developed building instead of a bank account full of dollars.
GW … Here is why you get such a strong reaction from most people including myself (btw I did read all the articles). You come off sounding like we need to sit on this project and think about it because it might fail. Please tell me what Nationwide should do with the land? Sit on it for the next 10 years? Haven’t they already sat on it for 4? Would you rather have a big open field? And if they do sit on it, wouldn’t that just cause them to want to sell it to another developer?
You say:
“Given the bad news we read in the papers every day on the economy, it seems like a long shot” (for GY to succeed)
yet they have already secured tenants for the first phase. How does that say “long shot” to you? The need for more hotels near downtown has been documented in multiple reports. Are you saying they’re all wrong and there is no need thus Phase 1 of GY will fail?
The potential positives for this development are huge. From increased tax base for Grandview, to creating a pedestrian friendly retail district that (as I see it) pretty much extends downtown (I think it’s less than 1 mile away). From your article you seem to suggest throwing that all away based on a pessimistic (not realist) City Council member, an article that you agree with, and a fear of large portions of low income housing being developed there instead. You give scenarios that MIGHT happen; a ton of things can go wrong but does that mean you just sit there and don’t do anything? There is a cliché but its true; if you’re not moving forward then you are being left behind. In your words, “Maybe†Grandview doesn’t build this and things stay the way they are … for now; cause you better believe that something of this nature will be built elsewhere (and maybe not even in Columbus) and you can guarantee people will be leaving for greener pastures and I don’t have to speculate on the future for that because its already happening right now.
This post is kind of weird. My money says it will be a success. People who’s job it is to determine retail and business demand say the central city is under-served in this area. I see no reason why they would be wrong. I do see it cannibalizing traffic from Easton/Polaris. I like both those places (Easton way better because of it’s design), but will go to GY instead if the stores are the same or similar and it has as much or more cachet as Easton. The reason City-Center and retail in general has failed to thrive in the central city is not lack of demand, but lack of access. CU enivro-hippie types notwithstanding, the majority of the populace (myself included) would rather drive to a place like Easton because it’s much easier and convenient with all that retail in one place than to pay to park or ride a bike or something to that effect downtown to a hodgepodge of subpar retail choices. Not that I’m against downtown re-development and investment – it’s just the future of downtown is business, entertainment and residential with a smattering of niche retail. GY will meet a demand for retail, especially among an increasingly gentrifying affluent central city populace. I just hope it’s not at the expense of another area becoming another Northland/Eastland/or Westland.
Offtopic – May the engineer who came up with the brake bleeder screw eternally burn in hell. Torment him with a tank that will be filled with sweet cool water, but undrinkable because the bleeder screw to gain access will be rusted eternally shut.
On the other hand, hu rah for Grandview Hardware and the guy who turned me on to “Blaster penetrating fluidâ€Â. A half hour of spraying and tapping and heating and I got the most rusted screw ever out in one piece.
GViewProgrammer , I thought the author of the Atlantic article presented a clear case for why the financial problems in the US are at root the same that caused problems in other countries. A financial sector with too much power that takes too many risks for short term gain. Believing that the US is unique will not solve the problems.
You said “Columbus is also very diverse so when the rest of Ohio is dying, Columbus is thriving.†Really? Have the unemployment rates in Columbus improved? More exceptionalism. It is exactly that firm belief (held by many beside you) that the US is somehow immune to basic economic principals that causes my pessimism in the economy.
Surber17 , you said “From your article you seem to suggest throwing that all away based on a pessimistic (not realist) City Council memberâ€Â. Not at all.
That council member was doing his job, which was consider what might happen with G.Y. in the future and all possible downside scenarios. He didn’t think the one I presented was likely, and he did vote in favor of the G.Y. plan.
My point in posting that scenario was to do the job that the Grandview city council didn’t do. They should have given the residents a full picture, with all possible scenarios, so that we taxpayers could have some input to the council before they voted.
Too late now. I’m a homeowner in Grandview and my taxes and home value are now tied to the success of G.Y.
Yeaaay Grandview yard! Sis boom bah! I’m your number one cheerleader!
I’m not trilled about this project. I think it detracts from the push for retail development downtown. On the bright side, at least I won’t have to drive to the burbs for my unmet shopping needs.
JonMyers Says: Is the Grandview Yards location really that prime? I guess for me prime would mean you could take an inspiring walk there from a densely populated community without getting mowed down by a car.
Currently Olentangy River Road is a pedestrian barrier in the same manner as most suburban collector roads like Polaris Parkway. Changes to O.R.R. that promote pedestrian traffic (reduced setbacks, etc) from Harrison to Grandview could help.
GW_Justice – first I want to apologize if I came off too fired up before … sorry about that :) I know you’re just trying to look at it from every angle; I think I just took it the wrong way thinking you didn’t want this to be built. I get frustrated because people seem to dog every large project in Columbus and the truth is there aren’t very many projects to dog! Ibiza, GY, Neighborhood Launch, the Jackson, and ? also just look at the threads esp. for Ibiza, there are people that want to see that fail. Why? Same with this, i took it (wrongly) that you almost wanted it to fail just so you could say “I told you so”. If Columbus had choices of what they wanted to build I’d say lets pick these apart and make sure we get the very best for our money, but we don’t. We have less than 10 major projects that I can think of. So good or bad I want this to be built because it has been shown that when a city does nothing; its doing nothing but dying.