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Last month NRI announced the start of Phase One of the massive Grandview Yard development, which would include a new hotel, gym, offices, and parking deck on the freshly cleared site of the former Big Bear warehouse facilities.
Yesterday, the Grandview Watch website posted up some thoughts titled “How Grandview Yard could fail – and bring down the schools” which takes a look at a few potentially worrisome scenarios. Does anyone have any thoughts on the likelihood of any of these not-so-optimal conditions occurring for this development?
“The preceding was a speculated future that has somewhere between 10 and 90 percent chance of happening.”
Ummm…that’s hedging your bet quite a bit.
If the economy doesn’t pick up, it might fail. But what does “fail” mean? Not be hugely profitable? Only marginally? Lose money? For whom? Stay empty? I highly doubt it’ll stay empty! Cause the downfall of Grandview, its schools, and everything good and just in the world?
It’ll be fine. It’s geography alone will pull it through. Students and young professionals will like the location, and retail will follow.
Site prep work has started on the project. A fairly decent hotel is already on deck, along with a gym and office space. It seems like a decent start and is NOT just building more strip mall retail space.
Sure, any plan can ‘fail’. Much of this is base “what if” speculation, with little to back it up other than perhaps a bad feeling on the author’s part.
Would the author have preferred the space to safely stay as an abandoned warehouse and an abandoned GE plant? Or perhaps as it sits now, a few piles of rubble and a big pile of dirt?
change is scary. Sorry, but that’s just how it works. At least NRI is trying to make something good and has a decent track record.
What about all the jobs this center will create in and of itself? While we can’t help the unemployment levels on a national basis, this sure seems like a good way to combat them locally.
Also- one could infer that building during an “economic crisis” is the best time to build. If you can fund the build you can often take advantage of lower prices due to the need to move inventory/building supplies, etc.
And, as a city, a community, we should all be concerned about the waste buried deep in our earth regardless of whether we’re building there or not. Clean up is expensive yes, but it’s our children and their children that we’re helping- along with ourselves….
Grandview Yard must have a brighter future than downtown Columbus retail as I doubt very much that Nationwide would have otherwise bailed out on City Center.
YOURVEGAS’s first question is actually something I wonder about these developments: do they really create jobs? Or are they just substitute jobs from elsewhere around Columbus? I don’t think opening new stores automatically means people spend more money. Don’t they just spend it at the new place instead of an old place? Are new jobs created just because new offices open? Maybe I’m wrong.
Either way, I’m glad those stores and offices will be closer-in rather than along 270. Plus, the construction jobs are good.
Cause the downfall of Grandview, its schools, and everything good and just in the world?
As Grandview goes, so goes Columbus!
Being mixed use will save this project, and if they can get a unique anchor for the retail side (a big H&M, please) that could be a success too. It is important to project worst case scenarios, but it’s a little early in the game to predict a loss.
Yes, Jefe- I agree! I’m not saying all the jobs created will be those inside the retail facilities. I think we can also benefit from the jobs created before the center even opens- mainly with construction. I personally know a lot of construction workers who are currently out of jobs. Those with jobs have had their hours cut. I think this is a great way to help combat that. I’m not saying it will be the cities saving grace- but I do think it’s a great way to start helping ourselves rather than sitting around waiting to be helped.
Once the stores/hotels/etc. do open I’m sure many jobs will be outsourced but I don’t think all of them will and that will surely help somewhat. I also think that if the public puts pressure on Grandview Yard to distribute those jobs locally, they’ll be in a position to need our support enough to at least consider doing just that.
If people thought like this man, nothing would ever get done/get better. People are always looking for the “perfect” scenario … well guess what, it doesn’t exist. There are flaws with every project and if you think holding up this project is a good idea based on future speculation that there are little to no facts for you are out of your mind.
I love this: “I think we are headed for a Japan style 10 year economic downturn” ….. really? I’m sure you can find just as many people saying the recession could be over this year. So is this guy saying we shouldn’t build any large developments for the next 10 years? What a bunch of bull.
Why would the author italicize the entire article? I gave up before the end of first section because it was too hard to read. He should file that tactic under How My Blog Post Could Potentially Fail.
Any project backed by Nationwide does not fail because it has deep pockets, i.e. the policyholders’ premiums invested until needed to pay claims. You’re talking billions. Nationwide CEO’s always are “Who’s Who” until they leave office and lose access to the policyholders’ checkbook.
Because italics somehow denote a sense of earnestness.
Must say not impressed at all with this article. To me it was just saying “I don’t believe the economy is going to get any better and if it doesn’t this project will fail”. Then it goes on to list a litaney of reasons none of which I really agree with.
The truth of the matter is no one knows the future, but the enemy to a bright future is fear. There is nothing in this area now and I know from experiance that living in Grandview-area adds a lot of value when it comes to getting places. It is very easy to get around in the area and this will greatly help draw people to the hotel (that and the fact that they can walk around at night and still get downtown.)
Another thing you don’t see in the plan is condominums or residential units. So it won’t be hurt by the continued low condo sales in the area.
That area was a blight I am glad someone is trying to make it look better, and I will hope it succeeds instead of wondering what-ifs (thats for the developers).
Obviously, Mayor Coleman has faith in the project; otherwise, he would not be concerned about Columbus losing potential jobs to Grandview.
“If you have a good argument for why this can’t possibly occur, please send it in (use the feedback form on the left). I would be fine with doing a revision of this story if the facts prove it can’t come true.”
By this low bar, the author could have just as well based his pessimism about Grandview Yards on a hypothetical tornado destroying the whole project. After all, do you have a good argument that a tornado couldn’t possibly occur?? I wonder if there are any other Tin-Foil Hat blogs that could get CU coverage…
Motorist said it before I could.
It amazes me how many people in this city are so against the urban life style and urban infill. I say get with the times. I’m tired of hearing the constant whining. It just goes to show how far we still need to go to have that big city vibe and how much more we need to educate our populace on the benefits of urban living. It’s a constant uphill battle.
+1 to YOURVEGAS re: building in a recession being the best time to build if you can do it. NRI has the advantage of having good credit when commercial banks are desperate to make solid loans and willing to make deals. In addition, construction companies (and workers) are willing to take essentially subsistence-level work just to get by in down times, since their goal at the moment is just to survive until things pick up again. (The Timken Company in Canton did just this during the Great Depression, and was in an incredibly competitive position when the economy recovered … state-of-the-art plants built on the cheap.)
Also, I’m not quite sure what the author’s point about low-income housing was. I’m not aware that that’s currently envisaged for GY. Nor was I clear what point he was making about it, about how having or not having it might cause GY to “fail.” In fact, I agree with Jefe’s first post: I don’t think “failure” has been well-defined here. I’ll stipulate that City Center is a failure and that Polaris and Easton are (for now) successes. That leaves a lot of room. However, realistically, NRI did an outstanding job with the Arena District. They also obviously believe that building GY won’t suck business away from the AD, and they’ve got every incentive to be right about that. I think they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt.
As someone who lived in Chicago and Atlanta, both cities with urban development strategies, I love seeing the urban development planning happening in Columbus and surrounding areas like Grandview. And, as someone who lives in Victorian Village, I love the idea of being able to bike one more place and leave the car at home. Part of what will make this project successful is delivering relevant and useful retailers and space to the community. If it becomes another strip mall of the same stores that I can find surrounding Polaris, Easton, Tuttle or one of the many other developments, it won’t find the same success as if it can create a destination of unique, consumer-driven destinations that bring people to that location. The challenge that has occurred in retail development over the last couple of decades is that there was a rush to replicate successes until those successes became struggling models. Brands like Macy’s have become commonplace and so people do not seek the experience out, they just find the one closest to them. I think Grandview Yard has the potential to be something great and to deliver services and experiences to urban customers in a way that is being missed today. And, I am personally cheering for Columbus and its surrounding communities to find a development model of success that will serve as the blueprint for other communities looking to grow and evolve.
I think the author chose the incorrect rule to conduct his analysis. The economic sustainability of Grandview Yard probably depends on its design more than the economic conditions of the country. IMHO if the development is not walkable, it is not sustainable. I look forward to enjoying GY one day soon and really do hope that it is still viable in fifteen years.
I seriously doubt that Grandview Yard will fail, it’s location is too prime. Most likely it will be a success due to the lack of substantial retail near the city’s core. Grandview Yard’s success might come at the expense of more retail downtown which is most unfortunate.