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US Regions to Watch in 2012

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Started 4 months ago by News
Latest reply from johnwirtz

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News
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THE U.S. ECONOMY: REGIONS TO WATCH IN 2012
by Joel Kotkin 01/04/2012

In an election year, politics dominates the news, but economics continue to shape people’s lives. Looking ahead to 2012 and beyond, it is clear that the United States is essentially made up of many economies, each with distinctly different short- and long-term prospects. We have highlighted the five regions that are most poised to flourish and help boost the national economy.

READ MORE: http://www.newgeography.com/content/002609-the-us-economy-regions-to-watch-in-2012

Posted 4 months ago #
rus

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Interesting bit from that article:

Goldman Sachs recently predicted that the U.S. will become the world’s largest oil producer by 2017. The bounty is so great that the key energy-producing states have consistently out-performed the national average in terms of job and income growth. Houston, the nation’s energy capital, has enjoyed the fastest growth in per-capita income in the past decade. No reason to expect this to slow down much this year.

Reminds me of something I read a bit ago. The US is now apparently a net energy exporter:

http://www.statecollege.com/news/columns/daniel-nestlerode-as-us-becomes-a-net-energy-exporter-greenenergy-push-on-last-legs-951653/

Posted 4 months ago #
jbcmh81

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It's nice to see Ohio mentioned a few times on there.

Posted 4 months ago #
rus

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jbcmh81 said:
It's nice to see Ohio mentioned a few times on there.

Yes it is.

Energy growth, notes Bill Gilmer, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, also sparks “upstream” expansion in a host of other industries, such as chemicals and plastics. Massive new expansions to serve the industry are being planned not only in Texas and Louisiana but in former rust belt states, including now gas-rich Ohio. The big exception is oil-rich California, which seems determined to keep its fossil fuels — and the growth they could drive — out of mind and underground.

Also nice to see Columbus specifically mentioned as business friendly.

Posted 4 months ago #
jbcmh81

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Yes. I have MANY reservations about the whole energy boom just starting here, not least of which is sustainability. However, if there is a silver lining, it's that Ohio will probably not be near dead-last in population growth the next few decades and we'll be back on the map for awhile. Ohio's 3-Cs, especially Columbus and Cleveland, should see some major investments over the next several years, I would think.

What's interesting also is that most of those categories apply to our state. Aside from energy, agriculture is still big, tech is strong, etc.

Posted 4 months ago #
rus

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No doubt there's some challenges on the environmental front, but unless and until alternatives have a lower cost per KWH than conventional sources then we'll be using conventional sources. Might as well enjoy some economic growth from providing that.

Posted 4 months ago #
Walker
The KLD / Downtown
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jbcmh81 said:
It's nice to see Ohio mentioned a few times on there.

Agreed. Of the five things mentioned in the list, Ohio fits into four:

1. Energy Belt - Mentions gas-rich Ohio.

2. Agricultural Heartland - No exact mention, but we fall into this.

3. The New Foundry - The revival of Great Lakes manufacturing.

4. The Technosphere - business-friendly places such as Salt Lake City, Raleigh and Columbus, Ohio

The only one we don't fit is #5 (Pacific Northwest).

Hopefully these are good trends for Columbus as well as Cleveland, Cincinnati and the rest of the state.

Posted 4 months ago #
joshlapp
SoHud
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Walker said:
Agreed. Of the five things mentioned in the list, Ohio fits into four:

1. Energy Belt - Mentions gas-rich Ohio.

2. Agricultural Heartland - No exact mention, but we fall into this.

3. The New Foundry - The revival of Great Lakes manufacturing.

4. The Technosphere - business-friendly places such as Salt Lake City, Raleigh and Columbus, Ohio

The only one we don't fit is #5 (Pacific Northwest).

Hopefully these are good trends for Columbus as well as Cleveland, Cincinnati and the rest of the state.

From the article: These scenarios, of course, could be changed by either world events — such as an unexpected crash in the Chinese economy — or a stunning Democratic sweep in 2012 that would occasion another round of Obamaian stimulus and ever more heavy-handed regulation. Yet barring such developments, expect the back to basics economy to continue enriching these regions best positioned to take advantage of it.

This is why I take no stock in New Geography.

Posted 4 months ago #
Analogue Kid
5th by West-Northwest
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The revival of Great Lakes manufacturing is one of the heartening stories of the past year, but the biggest beneficiaries of American manufacturing’s revival will likely be in the Southeast and along the Texas corridor connected to Mexico. Future big growth will not come from bailed-out General Motors or Chrysler, with their legacy costs and still-struggling quality issues, but from foreign makers — Japanese, German and increasingly Korean — that build highly rated, energy-efficient vehicles. These countries are not just investing in cars; they also have placed steel mills and aerospace facilities in the rising south-facing foundry.

Normally Kotkin essays are pretty well researched, but this bit completely missed the mark. GM and Chrysler got rid of almost all their legacy costs in bankruptcy. So, right or wrong, they now are very financially healthy and continue to invest in new products. The cars from the American Big 3 today are light years ahead of even what they had 10 years ago, and sales are reflecting that. That's not to say competition isn't fierce, but it's by no means inevitable that foreign cars are going to continue to eat market share from the domestics.

Posted 4 months ago #
NEOBuckeye
Ohio At-Large
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rus said:
No doubt there's some challenges on the environmental front, but unless and until alternatives have a lower cost per KWH than conventional sources then we'll be using conventional sources. Might as well enjoy some economic growth from providing that.

And earthquakes.

Posted 4 months ago #
rus

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NEOBuckeye said:
And earthquakes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_magnitude_scale

4.0–4.9 Light Noticeable shaking of indoor items, rattling noises. Significant damage unlikely. 13,000 per year (est.)

Minor concern, really.

Posted 4 months ago #
Coremodels
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Minor concern, really.

Come on now. I'm actually mostly supportive of efforts to expand oil and gas industry in Ohio, but suggesting that a series of earthquakes being caused by the industry is minor because they've been small so far is ridiculous.

Posted 4 months ago #
NEOBuckeye
Ohio At-Large
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Walker said:
Agreed. Of the five things mentioned in the list, Ohio fits into four:

1. Energy Belt - Mentions gas-rich Ohio.

2. Agricultural Heartland - No exact mention, but we fall into this.

3. The New Foundry - The revival of Great Lakes manufacturing.

4. The Technosphere - business-friendly places such as Salt Lake City, Raleigh and Columbus, Ohio

The only one we don't fit is #5 (Pacific Northwest).

Hopefully these are good trends for Columbus as well as Cleveland, Cincinnati and the rest of the state.

Columbus has Salt Lake City and Raleigh beat in one very critical long-term area: Water. There's simply much more of it to go around here in the Midwest. Raleigh will be battling Charlotte, Atlanta, Nashville and other major southern cities in the near future to maintain access to adequate supplies of fresh water in that region. As for Salt Lake City, the arid, water-poor West is the last place anyone should be trying to build a thriving metropolis. It's for the very same reason that Phoenix and Las Vegas don't have much of a future.

Sooner or later, people will remember why the Midwest is the best. We might not have palm trees, year-round 70-degree weather and seemingly endless amounts of sunshine, but we do have the resources to keep you alive. ;-)

Columbus needs to do more to play up this advantage.

Posted 4 months ago #
rus

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Coremodels said:
Come on now. I'm actually mostly supportive of efforts to expand oil and gas industry in Ohio, but suggesting that a series of earthquakes being caused by the industry is minor because they've been small so far is ridiculous.

Matter of perspective, perhaps? I was in Kobe during the 95 earthquake. A little rattle now and then is nothing in comparison.

Posted 4 months ago #
Coremodels
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rus said:
Matter of perspective, perhaps? I was in Kobe during the 95 earthquake. A little rattle now and then is nothing in comparison.

Yeah, I'm sure a series of man-made earthquakes are nothing to worry about.

Posted 4 months ago #
rus

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Coremodels said:
Yeah, I'm sure a series of man-made earthquakes are nothing to worry about.

At that level? No, they're not.

Posted 4 months ago #
Coremodels
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rus said:
At that level? No, they're not.

Dude...first of all, man actually creating earthquakes at all is something to worry about IMO. Second of all, 5-10 man made earthquakes in a year of any size is a pattern that is doubly worrying.

Posted 4 months ago #
cheap
Westgate
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Texas is ready to explode even more,job wise.

Bombardier just broke ground on a new factory in Red Oak TX last week.

They will be building fuselage and wing sections for commercial aircraft. Supposed to be open in late 2013.

2500 jobs

Posted 4 months ago #
cheap
Westgate
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NEOBuckeye said:
Columbus has Salt Lake City and Raleigh beat in one very critical long-term area: Water. There's simply much more of it to go around here in the Midwest. Raleigh will be battling Charlotte, Atlanta, Nashville and other major southern cities in the near future to maintain access to adequate supplies of fresh water in that region. As for Salt Lake City, the arid, water-poor West is the last place anyone should be trying to build a thriving metropolis.

i remember Georgia suing Alabama over this issue years ago

Posted 4 months ago #
johnwirtz
Evanston, IL
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Walker said:
Agreed. Of the five things mentioned in the list, Ohio fits into four:

1. Energy Belt - Mentions gas-rich Ohio.

2. Agricultural Heartland - No exact mention, but we fall into this.

3. The New Foundry - The revival of Great Lakes manufacturing.

4. The Technosphere - business-friendly places such as Salt Lake City, Raleigh and Columbus, Ohio

The only one we don't fit is #5 (Pacific Northwest).

Hopefully these are good trends for Columbus as well as Cleveland, Cincinnati and the rest of the state.

I think Ohio is the Old Foundry

Posted 4 months ago #