kgibson07
Cleveland, OH (Ohio City)
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thoughts? the website referenced at the end can be found here:
http://oldfraser.lexi.net/publications/critical_issues/1999/amero/section_03.html
As proposed, a new currency could be in place starting 1/1/2010 where all currency in The U.S., Canada, and Mexico will instantly be converted.
Walker
The KLD / Downtown
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Maybe not chips in our head (yet) but it would be nice to be able to swipe an RFID embedded cell phone at a pop machine for payment instead of carrying coins around.
Sorry for getting off track with this, but I really don't see too much personal benefit for changing to a single North American currency. :? Perhaps someone with more of an economic background could explain it to me?
ejolsz
Victorian Village
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First this really is not the most up to date info on the subject (the website cited is from "Last Modified: Sunday, September 26, 1999"). So I wouldn't get all upset and think things are moving quickly on this. Changing from the greenback would cause all kinds of problems for politicians so don't think that they are about to go getting rid of the US dollar. That said there are a lot of huge benefits for currency union (as well as some drawbacks).
Walker you asked about this, one of the issues with currencies is flucutations in exchange rate that cause a huge cost of doing business. If currencies are pegged (as is China's is right now to the US dollar) you know at the begining of a transaction what it will cost you and there is not a lot of risk. If however you are manufacturing your goods in Mexico and the exchange rate changes between the peso and US dollar in a way that went against your transaction you could lose a lot (they actually buy futures to insure against this kind of loss, but what that means is a transaction cost to doing business in Mexico or Canada, or anywhere else for that manner). So really the general reason isn't so you can go shopping up in Canada or on vacation w/out changing notes.
As for the Amero itself, while Bush has been behind the idea, it would almost be impossible to pass, you'll notice that all the website against the idea are pretty low quality and that there is generally almost no traditional media talk about it, this isn't because there is some conspiracy to get rid of the US dollar. Accomplishing something like this would take time (look to the EU who did this) other countries have and still do lock their rates together and this is definitely something that is possible without actually printing new notes.
shroud
Polaris
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Walker wrote Maybe not chips in our head (yet) but it would be nice to be able to swipe an RFID embedded cell phone at a pop machine for payment instead of carrying coins around.
I don't know of any in the US (I'm sure there's some somewhere), but they've got vending machines in Japan that take payments from cell phones, and there are some early RFID vending systems.
It's funny, b/c my first thought was "wait, that's not secure, what if someone steals your phone?!"... but then I realized that it's not like people can't steal cash or credit cards now... So yeah, could be nice to use a cell phone msg to pay for meters, or vending machines, or ice cream at UDF, etc, etc... I hardly ever carry cash anymore anyway, but it'd be nice to not need the cards either.
gramarye
In Exile
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Credit cards are already about as secure as money can be these days; their greatest risk, by far, is temptation, not theft. The time between realizing your credit card has been stolen and canceling it can often be measured in minutes, and as long as you acted responsibly (i.e., didn't blow it off for a couple of weeks before reporting it), you won't be liable for unauthorized charges. They're actually extremely consumer-friendly (with the obvious exception of the interest rates, which never come into play if you pay off your balance every month).
As to the "Amero": the U.S. and Canada could conceivably merge into a joint currency union, though there's very little reason to be unhappy with the status quo, so an old cliche about things that aren't broke seems to me to be the final trump card here. Anything larger than that would be a very bad idea, and probably a worse one for less developed economies (e.g., Mexico, Caribbean nations, etc.) than for us.
columbusguy20
5XNW
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I don't trust this notion. Let each country keep its own currency. I'm so glad that our leaders want to make us be like the EU! :evil: I refuse to help keep Mexico on life support; that country has more problems than it knows what to do with.
kgibson07
Cleveland, OH (Ohio City)
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columbusguy20 wrote I don't trust this notion. Let each country keep its own currency. I'm so glad that our leaders want to make us be like the EU! :evil: I refuse to help keep Mexico on life support; that country has more problems than it knows what to do with.
I'm skeptical as well, especially after just watching the consipracy theorist classic, Zeitgeist - The movie.
This proposal is said to be part of a project for a "New American Century".
Brewmaster
Portland, OR
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I don't want to be more economically linked to Mexico, and I'm sure that Canada doesn't want to be more ecomonically linked to the US or Mexico. Mexico's goverment is basically propped up by their state-owned oil company, Pemex (over 50% of revenues go to the gov't). For the past few centuries they've used Pemex like an ATM, and now it's time to pay the piper. Their refineries are rusted out shitboxes and the output of their oil fields is crashing. They're in a world of hurt to the point where they may soon become a net oil importer, rather than an exporter.
Meanwhile, Canada is looking good. Oil sands projects are taking off, and they're the US's #1 supplier of energy (which is currently strengthening the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar), so why mess with a good thing?
Brewmaster
Portland, OR
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BUTerrier wrote Let the price of oil fall again
How do you suppose we do that? :lol:
Seriously though, oil supplies are tight, and in my view, will remain tight forever. Oil is getting increasingly difficult and expensive to get (deepwater, arctic, CO2 floods, high water cuts, etc...), who knows what the reserves of OPEC look like, giant fields like Cantarell are crashing, and mother nature stopped making new giant oil fields eons ago. I don't want to turn this into another Peak Oil thread, but at a time of sustained record prices, we're still only finding one barrel of oil for every six we consume.
Did you see this shocker from the normally bullish (supply side) IEA? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118397769578260737.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Unless there's a major global recession, I don't think we ever see $30 oil again.
gramarye
In Exile
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Even then, probably not.
What could happen, though, is that the world (or at least the country) is sufficiently wealthier that we can plow through the shock. That's one reason the oil shock after Katrina wasn't as severe as predicted. The price went up to something like double the 1970s oil embargo price, but household wealth has approximated tripled. Therefore, in relative terms, it wasn't as big a catastrophe even though it was decidedly unpleasant.
Brewmaster
Portland, OR
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So you're saying that we can just outbid everyone else? Idunno...I think that in the global economy, you rely on the people that we're outbidding so much that a recession in other countries results in a recession here.
Maybe some of us can swing $8 or $10 gas with our current lifestyles, but there are people out there now that are getting killed by the combination of ARMs and $3 gas.
gramarye
In Exile
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Well, it's not that we're outbidding everyone else, any more than they're "outbidding" us when they buy their own supplies. The world market is set fairly globally. Oil is a fungible commodity. What really mattered was that relative to how much wealthier we are as a country than in the 1970's, the recent pain at the pump wasn't as severe as the Arab oil embargo was.
Of course, that was this time around. Katrina was ugly, but just because that was such a major disaster doesn't mean it's physically impossible that we could face something worse. (Just, hopefully, very unlikely, at least for a long while.)
Brewmaster
Portland, OR
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I think you're going on the assumption that oil and gasoline are in infinite supply, while my thinking is that there are limits to what the world can produce and refine.
Here's the conundrum that we're in under your "we're wealthier than most nations and can therefore sustain high oil prices" theory. We're more dependant on other economies now more than ever. I think we can agree on that. Oil filters down into almost everything we consume and move. I think we can agree on that too. So it's likely that, in the period where we bid up oil prices as we compete more aggressivly for the limited supply, we could easily drive other countries (that we rely heavily upon) into recessions.
Economies run on energy, and our current global economy is currently set up to run on cheap energy. I'm sure things will get more efficient as it becomes cost effective to do that, but it'll be interesting to see how things adapt over the next decade as we see some insane energy prices. This could will only be exacerbated if oil production peaks and falls in the near-term, which will take more of the supply away.
kgibson07
Cleveland, OH (Ohio City)
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Walker wrote I think we should do away witll all currency and transact everything with credit cards and electronic payments only.
this has been widely talked about and disputed. most of the disputes stem from the gov't being able to turn off our monies at their discretion.
what's more intersting is google's part in all of this. i've been following google since it became public and always wondered exactly what they're up to. these links should paint an intersting picture, for those of you who haven't seen them before.
Read this:
http://www.google-watch.org/bigbro.html
Watch this:
http://epic.makingithappen.co.uk/new-masterfs1.html
Then watch this:
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