Polls Show a Bleak Outlook for Ohio Democrats « Columbus Underground Messageboard

Columbus Underground Messageboard » General Columbus Discussion » Politics

Polls Show a Bleak Outlook for Ohio Democrats

[139 posts] [32 contributors]

Topic Rating:

(Total Ratings: )
Rate this topic:

Started 1 year ago by Mercurius
Latest reply from deraj1013

Tags:

« Previous 1…67

gramarye
In Exile
Login to Send PM

joev wrote >>
Brunner is so shrill and polarizing, though. I think Tim Ryan should have run for the seat. He's the only Democrat I can think of that could have beat Portman.

I honestly don't think that anyone was going to beat Portman, not unless you could get a miracle anti-aging drug and knock 25 years off of John Glenn and bring him out of retirement. He has ties to the Bush administration generally, but not to anything particularly specific that has left a lasting memory. That's about it. He doesn't have too many liabilities, other than that. He's well-liked, well-funded, and running with a strong Republican tailwind.

Posted 1 year ago #
Core_Models
Columbus
Login to Send PM

At this point, every candidate looks like a complete f'ing genius compared to Christine O'Donnell. She's done more harm to the Tea Party in 2 months than I could have imagined.

Posted 1 year ago #
gramarye
In Exile
Login to Send PM

Core_Models wrote >>
At this point, every candidate looks like a complete f'ing genius compared to Christine O'Donnell. She's done more harm to the Tea Party in 2 months than I could have imagined.

The tea party is a victim of its own wave on that score. I can't believe that Mike Castle lost that primary. Now the tea party movement has a candidate doing nationwide damage to its image (in spectacularly public fashion at times), *and* is likely to send Chris Coons, someone who will be among the left wing even of the Democrats in Congress, to the Senate.

Posted 1 year ago #
hugh59
Aboard the ultimate power in Olde Towne East
Login to Send PM

We had a poll with Kasich up by 10 points yesterday. I would like to see the breakdown of Republicans responding to Democrats responding, but I could not find it in the data.

Poll results will be of questionable value if the polster gets the mix of respondants wrong. If they had too many Democrats responding, it would give an erroneous result. I have heard that polsters are having a hard time getting the right mix...turnout could be very unpredictable this year.

But we shall see. The ultimate poll will be on November 2nd.

Posted 1 year ago #
Mercurius
First Avenue
Login to Send PM

gramarye wrote >>

joev wrote >>
Brunner is so shrill and polarizing, though. I think Tim Ryan should have run for the seat. He's the only Democrat I can think of that could have beat Portman.

I honestly don't think that anyone was going to beat Portman, not unless you could get a miracle anti-aging drug and knock 25 years off of John Glenn and bring him out of retirement. He has ties to the Bush administration generally, but not to anything particularly specific that has left a lasting memory. That's about it. He doesn't have too many liabilities, other than that. He's well-liked, well-funded, and running with a strong Republican tailwind.

I generally really like Portman (see my endorsement in that thread.) He has ran a bit to the right than I personally would like - but the man understands his electorate. My biggest beef with him is when asked if climate change was happening, he responded, "I'm not sure."

Portman voted yes on starting implementation of Kyoto Protocol and personally installed many energy saving measures on his home that the current return on investment, well leads me to believe some other motivation exists. So why wouldn't he come out and say, "yes, climate change is real but we need to make sure the risks warrant the costs" or some other reasonable thing? I think polling shows that is unpopular with his constituents.

I'm increasingly worried that the Republican electorate is becoming increasingly anti science/ anti elite and elite politicians are having to cater to these idiots. It would still be nice to see an educated politician who actually had a backbone and didn't fall prey to public opinion research polling. Here's hoping it's just a campaign ploy.

Posted 1 year ago #
hugh59
Aboard the ultimate power in Olde Towne East
Login to Send PM

Core_Models wrote >>
At this point, every candidate looks like a complete f'ing genius compared to Christine O'Donnell. She's done more harm to the Tea Party in 2 months than I could have imagined.

I don't like O'Donnell. I opposed her during the primary (not that it matters since I am not a Delaware voter). However, I know her. I worked with her ten years ago putting on a convention in Washington, DC. She is not stupid as the media is making her seem. She is just not the kind of person who should be running for office.

Posted 1 year ago #
rus

Login to Send PM

gramarye wrote >>

Core_Models wrote >>
At this point, every candidate looks like a complete f'ing genius compared to Christine O'Donnell. She's done more harm to the Tea Party in 2 months than I could have imagined.

The tea party is a victim of its own wave on that score. I can't believe that Mike Castle lost that primary. Now the tea party movement has a candidate doing nationwide damage to its image (in spectacularly public fashion at times), *and* is likely to send Chris Coons, someone who will be among the left wing even of the Democrats in Congress, to the Senate.

Chris Coons might not have a lot of company, though.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/10/that_enthusiasm_gap_remains_aw.html

Posted 1 year ago #
Core_Models
Columbus
Login to Send PM

hugh59 wrote >>

Core_Models wrote >>
At this point, every candidate looks like a complete f'ing genius compared to Christine O'Donnell. She's done more harm to the Tea Party in 2 months than I could have imagined.

I don't like O'Donnell. I opposed her during the primary (not that it matters since I am not a Delaware voter). However, I know her. I worked with her ten years ago putting on a convention in Washington, DC. She is not stupid as the media is making her seem. She is just not the kind of person who should be running for office.

I don't know, I thought the mice with fully functioning human brains was the peak of it...but then there was the debate yesterday.

Posted 1 year ago #
Mercurius
First Avenue
Login to Send PM

hugh59 wrote >>
We had a poll with Kasich up by 10 points yesterday. I would like to see the breakdown of Republicans responding to Democrats responding, but I could not find it in the data.
Poll results will be of questionable value if the polster gets the mix of respondants wrong. If they had too many Democrats responding, it would give an erroneous result. I have heard that polsters are having a hard time getting the right mix...turnout could be very unpredictable this year.
But we shall see. The ultimate poll will be on November 2nd.

From Strickland's Campaign on yesterday's poll:

..this morningÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Quinnipiac Poll (along with the last two polls that they have released) is at so wide a variance with what we have seen in internal and even public polling in recent weeks that we believe it is worth comment.

With just two weeks until Election Day, it is our opinion that the Quinnipiac polls are irresponsible, inaccurate, and completely removed from the reality of the Ohio governorÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s race.

Some quick facts that call into question the Q poll results:

- TodayÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Quinnipiac poll had Kasich leading Strickland 59% to 32% among independents. Last weekÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Ohio poll, on the other hand, had Strickland leading among independents 40%-39%.

- Our internal polls have shown Strickland with a small lead and an uptick this week. Last week, KasichÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s pollster held a call with donors saying that their internals had Kasich with a 2 point lead.

- Over the past 2 weeks, the Kasich campaign has switched to 100% negative advertising and resorted to character attacks on Strickland.

... Similarly, signs of panic from the Kasich campaign- including pandering to the most Republican base groups, wild accusations against Ted, and harshly negative advertising- show that even they know they do not hold a 10 point lead in this race...

Posted 1 year ago #
joev
Merion Village
Login to Send PM

Core_Models wrote >>
At this point, every candidate looks like a complete f'ing genius compared to Christine O'Donnell. She's done more harm to the Tea Party in 2 months than I could have imagined.

She's run the race like she's Sarah Palin's developmentally delayed cousin.

Posted 1 year ago #
hugh59
Aboard the ultimate power in Olde Towne East
Login to Send PM

Well, let's not forget Al Gore saying that the Earth's core has a temperature in the millions of degrees. Politicians are idiots.

Posted 1 year ago #
tree_sketcher
Columbus
Login to Send PM

Clearly the polling for the election is wacky. Cnn has Strickland with a lead.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/10/20/cnntime-poll-all-tied-up-in-race-for-ohio-governor/

Posted 1 year ago #
hugh59
Aboard the ultimate power in Olde Towne East
Login to Send PM

I asked Jay Cost about the Ohio polls. He analyzes polls over at American Spectator. Here is what I asked:

Things look odd in the Ohio Governor's race. CNN has a poll out today with Strickland in the lead...that is a first for a long time. I assume that they have some interesting totals for Dem versus Rep turnout.

Are you going to be looking at this soon?

Here is his response:

Maybe but their polls are so crappy it is like child's play at this point. I would ignore their polls.

Posted 1 year ago #
gramarye
In Exile
Login to Send PM

Core_Models wrote >>

hugh59 wrote >>

Core_Models wrote >>
At this point, every candidate looks like a complete f'ing genius compared to Christine O'Donnell. She's done more harm to the Tea Party in 2 months than I could have imagined.

I don't like O'Donnell. I opposed her during the primary (not that it matters since I am not a Delaware voter). However, I know her. I worked with her ten years ago putting on a convention in Washington, DC. She is not stupid as the media is making her seem. She is just not the kind of person who should be running for office.

I don't know, I thought the mice with fully functioning human brains was the peak of it...but then there was the debate yesterday.

I didn't see that, or the one Monday, but I bet the one Monday in NY was far more entertaining. Why? Because the rent is too damn high.

Get the Flash Video

Posted 1 year ago #
Mercurius
First Avenue
Login to Send PM

On state level races, Suffolk University released a poll on Oct. 8 showing O'Shaighnessy leading Husted 44% to 33% with 23% undecided, Boyce leading Mandel 37% to 34% and 24% undecided, DeWine leading Cordray 44% to 38% with 13% undecided and Pepper leading Yost 33% to 29% with 32% undecided. Other interesting things are 63% of likely voter favor legalization of marijuana for medical use or personal use but a majority is still against civil unions or gay marriage - against 43% for 42% with 14% undecided.

If these numbers are accurate, regardless of the governor's race, the Ohio Apportionment Board will go to the Democrats. After winning every major newpaper endorsement and having greater name recognition - it's a surprise to see Husted down by a margin of 11 points. The undecided still remain huge though - and everything else says they are voting for Republicans this election by a large margin.

Posted 1 year ago #
RBloodworth
Baja Beechwold
Login to Send PM

hugh59 wrote >>
I asked Jay Cost about the Ohio polls. He analyzes polls over at American Spectator. Here is what I asked:

Things look odd in the Ohio Governor's race. CNN has a poll out today with Strickland in the lead...that is a first for a long time. I assume that they have some interesting totals for Dem versus Rep turnout.
Are you going to be looking at this soon?

Here is his response:

Maybe but their polls are so crappy it is like child's play at this point. I would ignore their polls.

Yeah, you're going to get nothing but unbiased analysis from the Richard Mellon Scaife-funded American Spectator (rolls eyes)... I agree with you that this CNN poll seems like an outlier- given that every other poll shows a Kasich lead of 8-10 points- but I wouldn't discredit it out of hand just based on an opinion from an analyst at the right-wing equivalent of The Nation.

Posted 1 year ago #
hugh59
Aboard the ultimate power in Olde Towne East
Login to Send PM

RBloodworth wrote >>

hugh59 wrote >>
I asked Jay Cost about the Ohio polls. He analyzes polls over at American Spectator. Here is what I asked:

Things look odd in the Ohio Governor's race. CNN has a poll out today with Strickland in the lead...that is a first for a long time. I assume that they have some interesting totals for Dem versus Rep turnout.
Are you going to be looking at this soon?

Here is his response:

Maybe but their polls are so crappy it is like child's play at this point. I would ignore their polls.

Yeah, you're going to get nothing but unbiased analysis from the Richard Mellon Scaife-funded American Spectator (rolls eyes)... I agree with you that this CNN poll seems like an outlier- given that every other poll shows a Kasich lead of 8-10 points- but I wouldn't discredit it out of hand just based on an opinion from an analyst at the right-wing equivalent of The Nation.

I followed Cost when he was writing during the 2004 and 2008 elections; his analysis was pretty good. He explained a lot about what was going on inside the polls better than anyone else.

I always keep the source of information in mind when I assign it credibility, but good info can come from surprising places. Of course, if you are just going to write off conservative sources, that is your choice.

One more thing, Cost also did analysis for Real Clear Politics for a while. People seem to think highly of the aggregation of polls done by that site.

Posted 1 year ago #
Mercurius
First Avenue
Login to Send PM

An interesting poll today from PPP:

"The Ohio Governor's race is looking like it could go either way three days out from the election. Ted Strickland has made a huge comeback in the final months of the campaign and now trails John Kasich only 49-48. PPP's most recent previous poll, in late August, had found Strickland trailing by 10 points. What Strickland has done over the last two months is bring the base home. He's now winning 87% of the Democratic vote, up from only 78% in the previous poll. Democrats also look like they'll now account for a larger share of the electorate, as the party's voters have increased their interest in turning out as the election has moved closer. If Kasich does end up winning it will be because he, like most Republican candidates nationally and particularly in the Midwest, is cleaning up with independents. He has an 18 point lead with them at 56-38."

Also interesting is they asked:

If the candidates for US Senate had been
Democrat Jennifer Brunner and Republican
Rob Portman, who would you have voted for?
Jennifer Brunner ............................................. 36%
Rob Portman................................................... 53%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

PPP is one of the most respected polling firms

Posted 1 year ago #
deraj1013
Merion Village
Login to Send PM

From the Dispatch...

Kasich by a hair
The governor's race is tight; voter turnout will be the key. Otherwise, the GOP looks to dominate

By Darrel Rowland

John Kasich has a razor-thin edge over Gov. Ted Strickland going into the final hours of an expensive, bitterly contested campaign that might wind up as Ohio's closest in 32 years.

Read more

Posted 1 year ago #