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What a difference two years make. With less than 75 days to the November election and early voting starting a month away, Democrats are trailing in nearly every competitive race. While political polling is notorious for push polls, missing a younger demographic that lacks land lines and just plain political bias - a mean of those polls starts to provide a clear picture of public sentiment.
At the congressional level, Rob Portman maintains a seven point lead over Lee Fisher - and Portman has a 9 to 1 war chest to spend. Paula Brooks, whom once was considered competitive, now trails Pat Teberi by 17 points and is no longer a key race for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
While more competitive, Mary Jo Kilroy is trailing Steve Stivers by five points, statistically meaningful and Steve Chabot leads Steve Driehaus by at least ten points. Bob Gibbs and Zack Space remain in a dead heat.
At the Ohio level, John Kasich has extended his lead over Governor Ted Strickland by eight to nine points respectively in the last two polls. The picture at the Ohio House of Representatives doesn't look much different.
Perhaps more important than all of these individual races is the re-drawing of legislative districts that will result from this election. The Apportionment Board consist of seven members, but three races decide the majority since both the Ohio House of Representatives and Ohio Senate both appoint a majority and minority member. Those three seats are the Ohio Governor, Secretary of State and Ohio Auditor. Jon Husted is all but guaranteed to win the SOS race and if Kasich maintains his lead, to the victor goes the spoils - at least for the next ten years, perhaps more.
Ohio is set to lose two congressional districts due to our loss of population. The Apportionment Board will decide which two districts are removed. Here's betting that whomever wins the apportionment board, both seats lost belong to the other party.
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