jbcmh81 said:
No, I think your entire posting history consists of doubting Columbus on every front, so this is no surprise that you discount it here as well.
That's funny, because anything good I acknowledge about Columbus get's completely overlooked. The difference seems to be that I'm not a cheerleader for or against anything. I've on many occasions here talked about the advantages of Columbus over Cincinnati. I think Columbus will be the economic engine of Ohio for years to come. But based on the current population, population growth and the mechanics of Pro sports it's pretty clear that Columbus doesn't have a shot.
Even local "experts" have this opinion:
http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/print-edition/2012/06/15/experts-say-columbus-would-struggle-to.html
Yes, I'd rather be on the side of reasoned experts in the field than wishful thinking people on a forum.
jbcmh81 said:
First, Columbus is getting BRT and is investing in it's core as well, so at worst, that's a wash. And I don't think the idea of rail is going to take another decade or more to get going. .
Comparing BRT to a street car is a joke. Don't get me wrong BRT is a step in the right direction but it does not being the economic development that a street car will.
As far as rail taking another decade, you have the head of COTA saying this.
"Central Ohio Transit Authority’s new CEO Curtis Stitt has said that the service needs to grow into a rapid transit system and eventually light rail, but that it is still about a decade off."
So if the CEO of COTA is saying that light rail is decade off, what are you basing your opinion on other than wishful thinking?
jbcmh81 said:
Second, Cincinnati has had much better economic conditions at times and was still a net feeder to Columbus. Further, Columbus attracts far more international and domestic in-migration outside of Ohio than Cincinnati, so it's not just about Columbus pulling residents in Ohio only. Cincinnati isn't even Columbus' biggest Ohio feeder. Cleveland is
Cincinnati loses very few people to Columbus. My point is that if 200 people were leaving Cincinnati for Columbus, and that stops. Those 200 people not only help Cincinnati's growth rate up, but it makes Columbus' growth rate go down. So the spread between them is double the effect. I agree that Columbus will continue to grow faster than Cincinnati for the foreseeable future. But you're talking about small yearly percentages around 1%. And movement in Cincinnati's favor means it would take Columbus decades more to break even. This isn't doubting Columbus it's just recognition of math.
jbcmh81 said:
So no, I see absolutely no reason to make the assumptions you're making. Cincinnati is just not a big enough feeder to seriously affect growth rates in Columbus.
Again you missed the point. Columbus growth rate comes a lot from the surrounding areas. Cincinnati is not gaining much from surrounding areas. So when economic times get better and people stop leaving Cleveland, Detroit, etc. that is going to slow Columbus' growth more than Cincinnati. Both cities are going to have to rely on growth from births and international migration.
Here are the projected numbers for 2020:
http://proximityone.com/demographics2020.htm
They're projecting Columbus to grow this next decade at 12.2% instead of 13.9% like last decade while Cincinnati stays the same at 6%. This pushes the time it takes Columbus to overtake Cincinnati by even more years. I guess they're in on evil plot to doubt Columbus as well.
jbcmh81 said:
And considering that Cincinnati's growth was 100% suburban and suburbia just isn't as popular anymore, if any metro is going to slow down, it's going to be Cincinnati. Especially since, even with the urban core investment, the city is not likely to reverse population losses in 10 years alone, so that's still going to weigh on metro growth rates. In Columbus both the city and metro are growing by double digits.
This isn't rooted in any facts and is more wishful thinking. As I previously pointed out 2020 projection have Cincinnati at a steady growth rate with Columbus' growth rate decreasing slightly.
jbcmh81 said:People have been assuming that Dayton-Cincinnati are one metro for years now, and the last time the census looked at them (a few years ago), they were not. And again, suburbia touching is not a requirement for metro consolidation anyway, so it really doesn't matter how many Wal-Marts are built along I-75.
But they have been moving in that direction, for example radio stations have been combining the two markets into one.
But regardles who cares if they are actually called the same metro. The point is that the growth is happening between Dayton and Cincinnati. Meaning that these people are south of Dayton. In other words they'd be more inclined to drive to Cincinnati since they are closer.
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