Millennials, Gen Y, The Suburbs and The National Housing Crisis

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Millennials, Gen Y, The Suburbs and The National Housing Crisis

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Started 1 year ago by Walker
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peanutnozone
Baltimore MD
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Not that Baltimore is my dream city (although I have fallen in love with it and I have easy access to northeast cities sans car) I came here with NO job and everyting DID fall into place. The scenario above was exactly what I experienced: friend online needed a roommate here in Baltimore, left my job and sold all my crap in Columbus, and three years later I'm sitting pretty in one of the best neighborhoods here. I guess I got lucky?

Posted 6 months ago #
Walker
The KLD / Downtown / Gay Street
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gramarye said:
Hah! It's true that if one of my college friends from OSU wanted to move to Akron, I'd let them crash on my couch for bit. (My wife might be more reluctant to allow it, but if I promised that said friend would take my ugly-@$$ couch with them when they left, she'd probably be fine with it.) However, my generosity might not last for months. What if you move to a city, crash on a friend's couch, and never find a job? Move along to another city after a few weeks?

Depends on how good of friends you are. ;)

Couch-crashing was just one example. Peanutnozone just shared a similar story but was more of a full fledged roommate rather than a couch-crasher.

Posted 6 months ago #
peanutnozone
Baltimore MD
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Walker said:
Depends on how good of friends you are. ;)

Couch-crashing was just one example. Peanutnozone just shared a similar story but was more of a full fledged roommate rather than a couch-crasher.

Yeah. First few weeks were a bit tenuous: snowpocalypse, ran low on funds...but it was awesome. I think it can be done.

Relating to the thread at hand: I'd rather choose my living space than follow where the job goes. I would also choose a job based on where they are located and the type of location. In my mind... and I could be WAY off base here, but if a company decides to locate in an office park versus somewhere more centric or at least close to amenities like transit then again, in my mind, something about the leadership at this company tells me that sustainability is not one of the values they espouse or are important to them, and I am much less interested in being involved with them. Call me nuts, and there are lots of other factors, but I worked at Chase in Columbus suburbs and the fact that their 'campuses' (and what a horrible concept for what the jobsite should be! Taking up all that space amid a sea of parking lots...blech) were only near major suburban retail centers. Sure, branches might be located in walkable areas...I wasn't involved with retail banking however.

Does anyone have that sensibility when selecting a job? Transit access and values about the environment and such? Or am I daft?

Posted 6 months ago #
GCrites80s
5xNW
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That would have been a nice problem to have when I worked for others. Even now that I work for myself my workplace has to be close to where the customers are. Do you have a skill or other factor that allows you to be selective?

Posted 6 months ago #
gramarye
In Exile
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In terms of the setting of the job as between suburbia and an urban core, I certainly appreciated the downtown location of my current firm's office when selecting it. The availability of a decent apartment complex within walking distance was similarly attractive. However, I didn't choose the metro area based on where I wanted to live. I like Akron's downtown, but I freely admit that it isn't on par with Columbus or Cleveland.

Posted 6 months ago #
johnwirtz
Glenview, IL
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peanutnozone said:
Yeah. First few weeks were a bit tenuous: snowpocalypse, ran low on funds...but it was awesome. I think it can be done.

Relating to the thread at hand: I'd rather choose my living space than follow where the job goes. I would also choose a job based on where they are located and the type of location. In my mind... and I could be WAY off base here, but if a company decides to locate in an office park versus somewhere more centric or at least close to amenities like transit then again, in my mind, something about the leadership at this company tells me that sustainability is not one of the values they espouse or are important to them, and I am much less interested in being involved with them. Call me nuts, and there are lots of other factors, but I worked at Chase in Columbus suburbs and the fact that their 'campuses' (and what a horrible concept for what the jobsite should be! Taking up all that space amid a sea of parking lots...blech) were only near major suburban retail centers. Sure, branches might be located in walkable areas...I wasn't involved with retail banking however.

Does anyone have that sensibility when selecting a job? Transit access and values about the environment and such? Or am I daft?

Yes, I think that way when selecting a job and a home. I don't want to work or live somewhere where I have to drive between the two every day. More than that though, I don't want the expense of buying a second car for our household.

Posted 6 months ago #
Walker
The KLD / Downtown / Gay Street
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peanutnozone said:
Does anyone have that sensibility when selecting a job? Transit access and values about the environment and such? Or am I daft?

We're a much smaller company than Chase, but we set up our offices on Gay Street to be located close to the heart of the city and in the middle of an exciting urban district. Our building does not have any on-site parking, and parking lots and garages in the area are some of the most expensive in the city.

We buy monthly bus passes for our employees and provide a spot for secure indoor bike parking. Everyone on our staff walks, buses or bikes on a daily basis (aside from making the occasional outlying sales meeting trip in the car to an outlying area).

So far, none of our employees are complaining. They live in the Short North and Olde Towne East, and we live in the KLD, all within a short 1-2 mile distance from our office.

Posted 6 months ago #
News
Columbus Underground
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MILLENNIALS READY TO PLAY KEY ROLE IN HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY
by Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais 11/26/2012

Recent data from a survey commissioned by Better Homes and Garden Real Estate (BHGRE) suggests a pent up desire among 18-35 year olds to own a home of their own that could easily fuel a real estate boom for at least the rest of this decade.

In contrast to predictions from some futurists that the Millennial generation, born 1982-2003, will be content to be lifelong renters, BHGRE’s survey found home ownership still ranked as young Americans’ most important definition of personal success. Overall, three-fourths of those surveyed named home ownership as an indicator of having succeeded financially, more than seven times the number who named other major expenditures such as taking extravagant vacations, buying an expensive car, or owning designer clothing. Even among those living in the Northeast or in cities, seventy percent identified home ownership as the best indicator of having made it financially. This is fully in line with earlier studies by Pew Research that found home ownership was among the top three priorities in life for members of the Millennial generation.

READ MORE: http://www.newgeography.com/content/003259-millennials-ready-play-key-role-housing-market-recovery

Posted 5 months ago #
jbcmh81

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A couple problems with this... First, the results seem rather loaded. It's like one of those questions Family Feud asks. Homes are probably always going to be the #1 answer when it comes to financial security, just because it's always going to be one of the most expensive possessions one can think of. That doesn't necessarily translate to the idea that home ownership will be the #1 goal, or at least not the suburban 4-bedroom McMansion that older generations embraced. Homes come in all shapes and sizes, and I don't see this suggesting that urban dwelling won't remain popular or grow more popular over time, just that permanent renting is not going to be the last stop. Urban condos and townhomes may end up replacing some or a lot of that surburban demand.

Second, I think there's an assumption that this change back to the city will happen in a single generation with Millenials, but I've never been convinced of that. I think Millenials have been the first generation to start a real movement away from the goal of suburban living, but not necessarily the one that will fully embrace those ideas. I still see the urban rebirth as something that is here to stay and that will grow stronger, and not just because of the Millenials, but because of retiring Baby Boomers as well.

Posted 5 months ago #
Walker
The KLD / Downtown / Gay Street
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jbcmh81 said:
Second, I think there's an assumption that this change back to the city will happen in a single generation with Millenials, but I've never been convinced of that. I think Millenials have been the first generation to start a real movement away from the goal of suburban living, but not necessarily the one that will fully embrace those ideas. I still see the urban rebirth as something that is here to stay and that will grow stronger, and not just because of the Millenials, but because of retiring Baby Boomers as well.

Agreed. The suburbanization of American has taken place over the span of over 60 years. There's no reason to expect a mass exodus back to the city in a much shorter timeframe. I think an admirable goal would be to continue to grow metro areas with limited continued sprawl and additional infill into existing urban and suburban areas.

And yes, that's going to be driven by Boomers just as much as Millennials.

Posted 5 months ago #
GCrites80s
5xNW
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If they're like me, they're probably sick of looking at all that white in rental units. It's going to be a while before I can consider buying anything, but the WHITE is driving me insane.

Posted 5 months ago #
buckette13

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GCrites80s said:
If they're like me, they're probably sick of looking at all that white in rental units. It's going to be a while before I can consider buying anything, but the WHITE is driving me insane.

There is always the ever popular 'ghetto beige'...I think my last 4 apartments were painted in it. yuck

Posted 5 months ago #
GCrites80s
5xNW
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Gimme the ghetto beige any day.

Posted 5 months ago #
johnwirtz
Glenview, IL
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GCrites80s said:
Gimme the ghetto beige any day.

I agree. In my last rental unit (several years ago), I painted a couple of the rooms to add some variety. I knew the landlord would likely want me to paint back over it when I moved out, but it would have been nice if they could be a little more flexible about stuff like that.

Posted 5 months ago #
NEOBuckeye
Ohio At-Large
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gramarye said:
In terms of the setting of the job as between suburbia and an urban core, I certainly appreciated the downtown location of my current firm's office when selecting it. The availability of a decent apartment complex within walking distance was similarly attractive. However, I didn't choose the metro area based on where I wanted to live. I like Akron's downtown, but I freely admit that it isn't on par with Columbus or Cleveland.

Akron's downtown still leaves a great deal to be desired, like affordable non-student residential options for one. The Northside loft tower was built either for the slew of biomedical start-up executives expected to start showing up any day now, or LeBron James' entourage, which likely followed him to South Beach. Apparently the developer realized that the local economy is still too weak to sustain upscale development as evidenced by his decision to build the second tower as a hotel instead of additional condo units.

At the other end, the University of Akron has gone on a student housing construction binge, but apparently no one has figured out yet what to do about all of the students who walk across the stage at EJ Thomas and out of the metro entirely because there is no place for them downtown, and living in generic suburban apartments in sprawling Stow, Montrose or Medina isn't appealing in the least.

If I were mayor, I'd be doubling down on new and refurbished affordable housing in Akron's core neighborhoods, to hold onto grads from UA and Kent, and I would be finding a way to build a direct rail line to Downtown Cleveland and Akron-Canton Airport.

Posted 5 months ago #
gramarye
In Exile
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I don't think the market is there yet for for rail from Akron to CAK. Even rail from Akron to Cleveland is only even a remote possibility because the rail line already exists going through the Cuyahoga Valley National Park; they have talked about trying to extend that into Terminal Tower before, but it has always gone nowhere.

On the affordable housing options, it will be interesting to see the occupancy rate at the 401 Lofts when they open downtown next year. Those are going to be basically the highest-priced rental units downtown. We'll see how they end up. I agree there is also real market demand for lower-end units that would be priced more economically than that. We'll see.

Posted 4 months ago #
NEOBuckeye
Ohio At-Large
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gramarye said:
I don't think the market is there yet for for rail from Akron to CAK. Even rail from Akron to Cleveland is only even a remote possibility because the rail line already exists going through the Cuyahoga Valley National Park; they have talked about trying to extend that into Terminal Tower before, but it has always gone nowhere.

On the affordable housing options, it will be interesting to see the occupancy rate at the 401 Lofts when they open downtown next year. Those are going to be basically the highest-priced rental units downtown. We'll see how they end up. I agree there is also real market demand for lower-end units that would be priced more economically than that. We'll see.

Flights at CAK are consistently outperforming expectations... And breaking records.
http://www.wkyc.com/news/article/275643/6/Flying-high-Akron-Canton-airport-breaks-record

I dunno. I mean we could always wait another 20 to 30 years and then build a line from Akron to CAK or even from Cleveland to CAK via Akron. But is it so much of a question of the market supporting rail, or of rail supporting the market? Charlotte seems to be making quite a sound case for rail supporting the market.

Posted 4 months ago #
NEOBuckeye
Ohio At-Large
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Aging Baby Boomers and the Next Housing Crisis
The Atlantic Cities

Demographers often describe the baby boom generation as if it were an indigestible mammal – maybe a pig, or a rabbit, or a really big rat – slowly moving through the python that is America’s population. As this generation has aged, the baby boom bulge has remade society in its image, first as a massive class of toddlers, later as rabble-rousers in the 1960s, then as solidly middle-class heads of household and, soon, as the largest class of retirees the country has ever seen.

Read more: http://www.theatlanticcities.com/housing/2013/03/aging-baby-boomers-and-next-housing-crisis/4863/

--------------

2020 is the prediction given in the article for the next housing crash. While I agree that not every suburb will be toast (e.g. Dublin), there are certainly going to be a LOT of losers.

Posted 2 months ago #
Walker
The KLD / Downtown / Gay Street
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Very interesting article, and if the projections turn out to be true, it will be interesting to see what type of impact is felt on Columbus. Our region is projected to gain a half million people by 2035, which may help to offset some of the challenges, though if the next demographic wave can't afford to purchase the predicted upcoming glut of suburban homes for sale, then there certainly will be some financial pain in certain parts of the region.

Posted 2 months ago #
NEOBuckeye
Ohio At-Large
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Walker said:
Very interesting article, and if the projections turn out to be true, it will be interesting to see what type of impact is felt on Columbus. Our region is projected to gain a half million people by 2035, which may help to offset some of the challenges, though if the next demographic wave can't afford to purchase the predicted upcoming glut of suburban homes for sale, then there certainly will be some financial pain in certain parts of the region.

I don't see a great deal of pain in Columbus/Central Ohio if expected population growth pans out for the region. If anything, another 1 million people in the region will likely encourage greater retrofitting for density and walkability throughout the inner ring suburbs/communities and beyond given current trends and living/lifestyle preferences of Gens X and Y. Central Columbus has already been a big winner here, but this fortune will extend to communities/suburbs like Clintonville, Grandview, Bexley and Whitehall, and even eventually to Franklinton and the Hilltop. Outer Suburbs like Dublin that already understand the need to retrofit themselves for density if they are to thrive and prosper well into this century will also be beneficiaries of this influx.

I do however see a lot of pain manifesting in places like Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh, and in smaller cities like Dayton, Toledo, and Akron, where population growth has been stagnant or in steady decline. In many of these metros, their downtown populations are on the rise. It's their suburbs, however, that will really feel the pain as younger adults pass them over for more tenable arrangements if they aren't offering them. I can already see this unfolding in a number of suburbs around my native Akron where Boomers are aging in place but their kids aren't sticking around or coming back. In 10-15 years as the Boomers either pass on or move into retirement communities, many of these places will have become dilapidated ghost towns that resemble vacated, grassed-over neighborhoods now in some parts of Detroit.

Posted 2 months ago #