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Started 3 years ago by GW_Justice
Latest reply from gramarye

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GW_Justice
Grandview Hts.
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Right now the Dow is down -290 or so, flirting with 10K. I don't believe that daily swings "tell you' anything (the talking heads always make up a story for the day), but I do think longer swings in the market are significant, and this is a milestone.
Bets on the market going into full panic mode if it hits 10K?
Also â€“ to calm yourself about the economy, listen to the this weekend's episode of This American Life.
http://www.thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=365
Some very smart people talking about the the 36-hour period, two weeks ago, when the credit markets froze. Also credit default swaps and if the $700 billion bailout bill signed into law was a good idea or a bad one.
Not required but also good, the same people had a program back in May called The Giant Pool of Money that tells you how we got here. Smart, non-partisan stuff.
http://www.thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=355[/url]

Posted 3 years ago #
myliftkk
Columbus, OH
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GW_Justice wrote Right now the Dow is down -290 or so, flirting with 10K. I don't believe that daily swings "tell you' anything (the talking heads always make up a story for the day), but I do think longer swings in the market are significant, and this is a milestone.
Bets on the market going into full panic mode if it hits 10K?
Also â€“ to calm yourself about the economy, listen to the this weekend's episode of This American Life.
http://www.thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=365
Some very smart people talking about the the 36-hour period, two weeks ago, when the credit markets froze. Also credit default swaps and if the $700 billion bailout bill signed into law was a good idea or a bad one.
Not required but also good, the same people had a program back in May called The Giant Pool of Money that tells you how we got here. Smart, non-partisan stuff.
http://www.thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=355[/url]
Well, it passed 10k in the wrong direction...
It's not just the Dow, international markets are getting hammered, including commodities. On the other hand, maybe Iran won't be able to afford to build a Nuke if all the markets go in the tank and oil goes back to $20 a barrel. :roll:

Posted 3 years ago #
Brant
Gahanna
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Wasn't the bailout supposed to keep this sort of thing from happening?

Posted 3 years ago #
Tigertree
771 N. High St.
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Looks like the dow is nearing 10,000 again, but the good way this time. I feel the same way I did/do with the housing crisis. Where are all the calls to buy? You know what all of those fund managers on the Sunday morning shows are doing right now?
I had a guy (who posts on here, so maybe he'll reiterate or has said this already) in the store over the weekend who brought up the point that his retirement account, that he isn't touching for a long time, is a lot more powerful right now. He is contributing the same amount monthly, but it's getting him more by volume, which is going to make his account worth a lot more when he needs to access it. A long time from now.
If I wasn't such a news junkie that sits in front of a computer 10 hours a day at work, I would stop reading the news altogether. Every story doesn't have to be so negative.

Posted 3 years ago #
myliftkk
Columbus, OH
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Tigertree wrote Looks like the dow is nearing 10,000 again, but the good way this time. I feel the same way I did/do with the housing crisis. Where are all the calls to buy? You know what all of those fund managers on the Sunday morning shows are doing right now?
I had a guy (who posts on here, so maybe he'll reiterate or has said this already) in the store over the weekend who brought up the point that his retirement account, that he isn't touching for a long time, is a lot more powerful right now. He is contributing the same amount monthly, but it's getting him more by volume, which is going to make his account worth a lot more when he needs to access it. A long time from now.
If I wasn't such a news junkie that sits in front of a computer 10 hours a day at work, I would stop reading the news altogether. Every story doesn't have to be so negative.
Looking back at Japan in the nineties, there were similar people who bet on Japan recovering in the early ninteies by buying into their stock market when their real-estate bubble started collapsing. The market continued to sink during the rest of the nineties and Japan's stock market is still off it's late eighties highs by 30-40%. They refer to it as Japan's "lost decade".

Posted 3 years ago #
Tigertree
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I'm just saying we're getting a little too self-absorbed as a culture to think that ever event is the most tragic version of that event. It almost feels like there is some self-loathing desire for things to get worse. On the one hand, its pretty hard to determine these things on any sort of crisis scale. On the other I find it hard to believe we simultaneously have the worst financial meltdown, housing crisis, war, president, congress, environment, economy, energy crisis.... We think far too much in absolutes now.

Posted 3 years ago #
GW_Justice
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I used to think that Japan's stock market problems in the 90's was the thing to avoid, now I'm hoping that things here only get as bad as they did for Japan.
Liveblogging the panic today

Posted 3 years ago #
dru
IV
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Tigertree wrote
I had a guy (who posts on here, so maybe he'll reiterate or has said this already) in the store over the weekend who brought up the point that his retirement account, that he isn't touching for a long time, is a lot more powerful right now. He is contributing the same amount monthly, but it's getting him more by volume, which is going to make his account worth a lot more when he needs to access it. A long time from now.
It was I, an admittedly non-licensed financial expert. But the point remains largely as paraphrased. My personal view is that my personal retirement is largely in managed accounts, not individual stocks or commodities. So when we place in our monthly premiums, we are buying units, (or should we say widgets). The price of units is dropping these days. So my monthly contribution buys me more units in the current climate. If and when the market expands (and I have a 25 year timeline), I will have more units riding the wave forward. Part of the current allotment is off-set by units in Bonds, Commercial Real Estate and Money Markets that are still performing in positive territory. Bonds will eventually have to go down if the market gains strength, but the wave will override that.
So would I take $10k and just make an e-trade purchase of one stock to see what it does the next few years? Not really. But do monthly contributions to a long-term account still make sense given a DJIA at 9995? Yes in my opinion.
*edit - this made me look at my portfolio. utter carnage, the horror, oh the horror. still, 25-years to correct it, and i'll looking at forging on and waiting it out.

Posted 3 years ago #
myliftkk
Columbus, OH
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Tigertree wrote I'm just saying we're getting a little too self-absorbed as a culture to think that ever event is the most tragic version of that event. It almost feels like there is some self-loathing desire for things to get worse. On the one hand, its pretty hard to determine these things on any sort of crisis scale. On the other I find it hard to believe we simultaneously have the worst financial meltdown, housing crisis, war, president, congress, environment, economy, energy crisis.... We think far too much in absolutes now.
I would agree we're not very good as a culture in general at putting things in perspective, but that's not something that just started happening 20 years ago. That's a cultural thread that you can trace back all the way to the founding settlements.
Worst is a relative term anyhow, it's by nature not absolute. Tomorrow can always be worse than yesterday. That said, the finicial credit freeze-up is a critical issue since our current economic fabric is so interwoven by the ability to extend and receive credit. If you rip that out of the fabric of the economy, no one economist is quite sure what is going to happen. Suffice it to say, in the short term, it almost always isn't good when economic bubbles start to collapse, and in this case the bubble is large enough to span continents and economies.

Posted 3 years ago #
gramarye
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I'm trying to look at this on the bright side, much as dru is, and think that the money that I transfer into my Roth IRA at the end of this year may well go a lot farther over the long term than the same investment over time when I was investing high (i.e., during the bubble). However, it's good to be in a position of investing for the long term now. I wouldn't like to be in a position of having substantial equity exposure and either have retirement be right around the corner or some other expense (like a kid going to college) starting next year.
Also, there were a lot of people who invested in Japan when it fell a lot, thinking that it would bounce right back ... and it kept sinking into the Lost Decade. Here's hoping we can avoid that one.

Posted 3 years ago #
GW_Justice
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Good for you Dru, you have a long term outlook on investments and will probably have retirement money saved up so that you can have a normal retirement age. For the majority of the people on this board (guessing an average age in the 20s) that is probably the correct attitude.
Can we talk for a while about us oldsters?
Most of us had our 401Ks in stocks. Which have lost what - 25% in the last year? And if the country goes into a deep recession, maybe we will lose 50%. Could be years before it recovers, think Japan.
We do have some equity in our houses. Oops! Sorry, those are headed into the toilet too. Maybe not so much in Col, but who knows if the bubble drop will spread from the coasts. Yes, locally the bubble wasn't so bad, but specifically here in GV the prices bubbled the most, and could fall the most.
I guess those my age don't get to retire. If we are lucky. Because age discrimination is rampant, if we lose our jobs in the recession we can look forward to crappy low paying temp work.
At least those of us under retirement age have some way to make money. For those already retired, getting back into the job market is limited to Wal-Mart greeters, and how many of those positions exist? I guess dog food will be the next bubble.
Sure, there are lots of oldsters who had plenty of money, and even a 50% drop in stocks will mean pain but minor lifestyle change. For most, it means radical change, and fear of poverty.
So while the discussion continues about the problems in the economy, and what it means for you, give a thought to what Grandma and Gramps are thinking right now. They don't post on these boards, so you don't get the viewpoint of those people. I think they got the shortest end of the stick.

Posted 3 years ago #
Rockmastermike
CORNspiracy HQ
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GW_Justice wrote
So while the discussion continues about the problems in the economy, and what it means for you, give a thought to what Grandma and Gramps are thinking right now. They don't post on these boards, so you don't get the viewpoint of those people. I think they got the shortest end of the stick.
They certainly will be shafted the most by their investments circling the bowl.
But our generation will probably never see a dime of the money we're putting into "social security".

Posted 3 years ago #
Cookie
Flyntonville
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All of a sudden I don't feel so bad about not having a 401k or a house.
Thanks economic crisis!

Posted 3 years ago #
gramarye
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GW_Justice wrote Good for you Dru, you have a long term outlook on investments and will probably have retirement money saved up so that you can have a normal retirement age. For the majority of the people on this board (guessing an average age in the 20s) that is probably the correct attitude.
Can we talk for a while about us oldsters?
Most of us had our 401Ks in stocks. Which have lost what - 25% in the last year? And if the country goes into a deep recession, maybe we will lose 50%. Could be years before it recovers, think Japan.
Don't count your crises before they're hatched.
We do have some equity in our houses. Oops! Sorry, those are headed into the toilet too. Maybe not so much in Col, but who knows if the bubble drop will spread from the coasts. Yes, locally the bubble wasn't so bad, but specifically here in GV the prices bubbled the most, and could fall the most.
Well, that's the problem with bubbles; they are in fact paper wealth, and even more phantasmal than most paper wealth. The real problem is that people got lured into thinking that the bubble prices were the "real" prices, the intrinsic value of the house, and that therefore those prices were durable. That made people feel a lot more financially secure than they were.
As a more general issue, however, the long-term inflation-adjusted rate of return on residential real estate is darn near zero. Of course, some neighborhoods win and others lose, but it's not based on the value of housing in general going up; it's a product of environmental factors like better police protection, infrastructure, etc. that changes the value of the house. A house itself doesn't actually improve in quality as it ages--not the way a growing business does, for example. The purpose of owning a house should be to put a roof over your head, not as a store of equity to cash out for everyday expenses, either in retirement or beforehand.
I guess those my age don't get to retire. If we are lucky. Because age discrimination is rampant, if we lose our jobs in the recession we can look forward to crappy low paying temp work.
I can honestly say that in my entire life, I've never seen an example of age discrimination against the experienced. Try actually getting your foot in the door at the ground floor sometime. You're not winning any sympathy from me here.
I have seen examples of people who think that 30 years of doing the exact same thing entitles them to a salary twice that of someone who's done that thing for only two years--the idea that seniority trumps ability. Those people are freezing themselves out of the job market, however--not being frozen out by discrimination.

Posted 3 years ago #
GW_Justice
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gramarye wrote
I can honestly say that in my entire life, I've never seen an example of age discrimination against the experienced. Try actually getting your foot in the door at the ground floor sometime. You're not winning any sympathy from me here.
This is off topic, but your personal experience is not the reality most people live in.
http://www.google.com/search?q=age+discrimination
Those laws against age discrimination were put in place because of well documented facts. Under the Bush administration the government almost stopped enforcement, because it was "anti-business".
Would you also say that racism doesn't exist because you don't see it?

Posted 3 years ago #
hobbesOSU
West Side C-bus
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GW_Justice wrote
Can we talk for a while about us oldsters?
Most of us had our 401Ks in stocks. Which have lost what - 25% in the last year? And if the country goes into a deep recession, maybe we will lose 50%. Could be years before it recovers, think Japan.
As you age, you're supposed to start moving money out of stocks and into bonds, right?

Posted 3 years ago #
gramarye
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GW_Justice wrote
gramarye wrote
I can honestly say that in my entire life, I've never seen an example of age discrimination against the experienced. Try actually getting your foot in the door at the ground floor sometime. You're not winning any sympathy from me here.
This is off topic, but your personal experience is not the reality most people live in.
http://www.google.com/search?q=age+discrimination
Those laws against age discrimination were put in place because of well documented facts. Under the Bush administration the government almost stopped enforcement, because it was "anti-business".
Would you also say that racism doesn't exist because you don't see it?
I do think that charges of racism, especially "aversive racism" or "invidious racism," get bandied about far too freely in today's society, but as you said ... this is off topic.
With respect to your exposure to the stock market, I'd second hobbes' point: as you get closer to retirement, it's at least conventional wisdom that you should be moving out of equities into investments with less downside risk. Of course, even bonds have been having serious trouble lately, so that might not have protected you in this case, so that's a less pointed critique than it would have been in more normal times.

Posted 3 years ago #
GW_Justice
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gramarye wrote
I do think that charges of racism, especially "aversive racism" or "invidious racism," get bandied about far too freely in today's society, but as you said ... this is off topic.
I didn't know those words, thanks for bringing them to my attention. But back on topic -
Dow currently down -328. Is that a hatching sound I hear?
Or is it our Grandparents, softly weeping? :-(

Posted 3 years ago #
Hael

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gramarye wrote Don't count your crises before they're hatched.
Excellent advice. Still though, it is brutal to log onto chase dot com and not notice my retirement account quickly going in the wrong direction. Time heals all wounds right?
Speaking of time and wounds and future crises....health care...baby boomers...there is a storm brewing there.

Posted 3 years ago #
turnedNOTburned
Grandview/Columbus, Ohio
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I've been meaning to pick up Greenspans book "In An Age of Turbulence" but, in there he discusses grave futures not only for the current retiree's, but, moreso for the Baby Boomers who haven't adequately planned for retirement (garnered from a few excerpts and video interviews). He paints a picture of Social Security not being strong enough to even support Baby boomers into their aged years (let alone our generation - me=GenX). With the the deflation of the stock bubble, it sounds like that the bill may have come early for some.
I can only hope that the 30-50 somethings in the center of the earning generation, hear the warning and mend our ways to wean ourselves off of deficit spending (both personal and government), and more into savings and investment. Its going to be a hard lesson learned, but, change sucks :)
Older workers staying in the workforce longer probably devalues me and makes my attempts to job hop to more income more difficult as well. That being said, I'm sure there are plenty of places for older workers to fill in gaps commensurate with their skills. Personally, I don't plan on EVER retiring as 1.) its probably not going to be an option 2.) I equate retirement with "gods waiting room" and have witnessed the physical and mental decline of SO many people when they stop working, or trying to advance themselves.
Admittedly, I can't imagine being 63-64 (like my parents) having busted your ass all of your life, and having the expectation that you're going to be able to "cut back" and not have to push your ailing/failing body into the workplace, just so you can afford to have the medicine and food that you need to have to live even a modest quality of life in whats supposed to be your twilight years.

Posted 3 years ago #