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My problem with Strickland is he is overly pragmatic to the point of being fickle. However, that is much better than Kasich who is overly prideful to the point of being an egomaniac. Can anyone find Kasich's stance on the 3C passenger rail?
Columbus Underground Messageboard » General Columbus Discussion » Politics
Strickland vs Kasich - 2010 Ohio Gubernatorial Election
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Doug Z
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joev wrote >>
More voting Ohioans hate FoxNews than love it, so I think Kasich is going down hard. The reasons Ohio's economy stinks aren't fully the fault of any governor. Strickland has governed like a moderate Republican; I don't see how he can lose in this state.It's true that Strickland has governed like a moderate Republican but consider this quote:
"Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time."
-Harry S Truman
Posted 2 years ago # -
kit444
Elsewhere
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Strickland has had to make a lot of decisions to make himself unpopular on both sides of the spectrum. The budget impasse required a lot of cuts in social programs that upset liberals and the delay in the final year of tax cuts upset conservatives, who probably wouldn't vote for him anyway. The worst of those decisions is behind him. Assuming the economy improves in 2010 as it seems cyclically bound to do, so will his approval rating and his prospects for victory. He has a huge fundraising advantage and Kasich isn't a known commodity outside of Central Ohio and the Fox News devotees. I see Strickland winning by 5-6 points.
That's my projection as a political scientist. You can go back to ranting about how much you hate him now.
Posted 2 years ago # -
joev
Merion Village
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Mercurius wrote >>
My problem with Strickland is he is overly pragmatic to the point of being fickle. However, that is much better than Kasich who is overly prideful to the point of being an egomaniac. Can anyone find Kasich's stance on the 3C passenger rail?Kasich isn't as far as I know telling anyone what his policies would be because he says he isn't the governor yet, and doesn't have to. What an a-hole. He's going to make his run as not-Strickland rather than as Kasich. But I think Bob Taft and his 19% approval ratings are still enough of a spectre that Strickland and his 40% approval ratings don't have much to fear from that strategy.
Posted 2 years ago # -
djtablesauce
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I posted an analysis of the new poll on my blog.
You can see it here: http://thirdbasepolitics.blogspot.com/2009/11/breaking-it-down-1111-quinnipiac-oh-gov.html
Here is the most important data set:
Strickland's approval among Democrats has ticked down, and disapproval has ticked up. Only 62% of Democrat voters approve of the job he has done. Why is that important? In New Jersey, where voter turnout was key and Democrats failed to show up, Corzine's approval in the last poll before the election was 70% among Democrats. Eight points higher than Strickland. The Governor's approval among Democrats has now shown to be consistently and substantively worse. Additionally, Corzine and Strickland are even when it comes to the number of Democrats disapproving of the respective incumbent Governors.
If Strickland is doing worse among his base than Corzine, in a state where the base is a smaller percentage of the electorate than New Jersey, then that's extremely bad news for Ohio's incumbent Governor. Provided this keeps, without question Ted Strickland will lose. It's impossible to win if your base in a purple state stays away.
Posted 2 years ago # -
kit444
Elsewhere
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djtablesauce wrote >>
I posted an analysis of the new poll on my blog.
You can see it here: http://thirdbasepolitics.blogspot.com/2009/11/breaking-it-down-1111-quinnipiac-oh-gov.html
Here is the most important data set:
Strickland's approval among Democrats has ticked down, and disapproval has ticked up. Only 62% of Democrat voters approve of the job he has done. Why is that important? In New Jersey, where voter turnout was key and Democrats failed to show up, Corzine's approval in the last poll before the election was 70% among Democrats. Eight points higher than Strickland. The Governor's approval among Democrats has now shown to be consistently and substantively worse. Additionally, Corzine and Strickland are even when it comes to the number of Democrats disapproving of the respective incumbent Governors.
If Strickland is doing worse among his base than Corzine, in a state where the base is a smaller percentage of the electorate than New Jersey, then that's extremely bad news for Ohio's incumbent Governor. Provided this keeps, without question Ted Strickland will lose. It's impossible to win if your base in a purple state stays away.Sure, if the election were held today maybe that's the case. I think Strickland is at his low-water mark now. There's no way to know for certain a year out.
Posted 2 years ago # -
coolbuckeye
South Clintonville
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Wake up people! This race isn’t just about your approval of the Strickland. I’m not a big fan either but I would be shooting myself in the foot if I didn’t support an incumbent democrat that will play a pivotal role in the apportionment board. It boils down wanting a democrat or a republican to gerrymander the state for there parties benefit. The republicans want this bad. And strickland was just unlucky enough to govern in the worst economic and hyper partisan environment we have seen in a long time. I don’t think he is perfect. But its not all his fault.
Posted 2 years ago # -
djtablesauce
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Thus, "provided this keeps..."
Sure, if the election were held today maybe that's the case. I think Strickland is at his low-water mark now. There's no way to know for certain a year out.
Of course there is no way to know, but if you read the analysis you'll see the state of the state is directly associated with approval ratings.
There is little to no evidence that there is going to be the vast turnaround necessary in the state of the state to make a serious dent in these approval ratings.
Posted 2 years ago # -
djtablesauce
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All his fault? No. And I don't think anyone is saying as much.
The problem is that he's been asleep at the wheel. The business tax climate in Ohio is the 4th worst in the country.
Strickland has done nothing to make Ohio more attractive to business.
Want proof? Under his watch, unemployment has doubled. Even worse, the labor force has decreased, meaning people are giving up on Ohio and leaving.
What ever happened to "the buck stops here?"
coolbuckeye wrote >>
Wake up people! This race isn’t just about your approval of the Strickland. I’m not a big fan either but I would be shooting myself in the foot if I didn’t support an incumbent democrat that will play a pivotal role in the apportionment board. It boils down wanting a democrat or a republican to gerrymander the state for there parties benefit. The republicans want this bad. And strickland was just unlucky enough to govern in the worst economic and hyper partisan environment we have seen in a long time. I don’t think he is perfect. But its not all his fault.Posted 2 years ago # -
kit444
Elsewhere
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djtablesauce wrote >>
Thus, "provided this keeps..."Sure, if the election were held today maybe that's the case. I think Strickland is at his low-water mark now. There's no way to know for certain a year out.
Of course there is no way to know, but if you read the analysis you'll see the state of the state is directly associated with approval ratings.
There is little to no evidence that there is going to be the vast turnaround necessary in the state of the state to make a serious dent in these approval ratings.What are the relative percentages of self-proclaimed Democrats versus Independents in New Jersey as opposed to Ohio (if this is in your blog post I apologize, the link is blocked at work)? If we can agree that Strickland has governed as a moderate (in a more purple state than New Jersey), then wouldn't increased support amongst independents offset weaker support from Democrats?
At any rate, I think we can both agree if the economy stands where it is today he probably will not win. I'm not an economist and I have no clue how to read those tea leaves.
Posted 2 years ago # -
joev
Merion Village
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djtablesauce wrote >> Want proof? Under his watch, unemployment has doubled.
You could say this of almost every state in the USA right now. Are all the governors doing bad jobs?
Strickland's approval ratings are down now because of unemployment. But also because of the recent biennial budget. People won't remember this budget as vividly as they do right now in another year. And I don't think you'll find a lot of people who say the Republicans in the Statehouse are doing a good job either.
Posted 2 years ago # -
Doug Z
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kit444 wrote: "Assuming the economy improves in 2010 as it seems cyclically bound to do, so will Strickland's approval rating and his prospects for victory."
That's a huge assumption. IMHO, we are only 20% through the financial/economic crisis.
Goldman Sachs and the other big banks got the $700 billion from the TARP fund and trillions through the Federal Reserve in 2008. This year the banksters got huge bonuses on the taxpayers' dime.
In 2010, look for a repeat of Goldman Sachs (financial terrorists) threatening that our economy will blow up if they don't get another $10 or $20 trillion. And these banks don't make anything other than junk financial products. Yes, you heard it here first.
What Ohio needs is a return of our manufacturing base that creates a tax base. Real wealth is created by making things---manufactured goods and intellectual creation.
Tax cuts to the wealthy just incentivizes speculation and money pouring into the Wall Street casino. Low tax rates for the wealthy during the 1920's was a cause of the Great Depression. FDR got us out of the Depression by raising the top marginal tax rate to the 80% to 90% range (we're talking incomes above $2 million adjusted for inflation).
http://www.alternet.org/workplace/106410/tax_cuts:_the_b.s._and_the_facts/
Posted 2 years ago # -
kit444
Elsewhere
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Doug Z wrote >>
kit444 wrote: "Assuming the economy improves in 2010 as it seems cyclically bound to do, so will Strickland's approval rating and his prospects for victory."
That's a huge assumption. IMHO, we are only 20% through the financial/economic crisis...If I made a huge assumption, then you followed with massive ones.
Posted 2 years ago # -
roy
Downtown
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joev wrote >>
djtablesauce wrote >> Want proof? Under his watch, unemployment has doubled.
You could say this of almost every state in the USA right now. Are all the governors doing bad jobs?
Joev, I agree, and poster djtable's been a member for all of an hour. I haven't looked at the "blog" he lists in his profile but I expect it's more of the same.
Posted 2 years ago # -
djtablesauce
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You ignore the rest of my post. This is about missed opportunities.
Strickland hasn't made any effort to make Ohio more attractive to businesses. Ohio is at a disadvantage until businesses see a warmer tax climate. Until we move out of the bottom four, we won't see much improvement.
And yep, I'm new here...but I'm not sure how that makes my points any less valid.
roy wrote >>
joev wrote >>
djtablesauce wrote >> Want proof? Under his watch, unemployment has doubled.
You could say this of almost every state in the USA right now. Are all the governors doing bad jobs?
Joev, I agree, and poster djtable's been a member for all of an hour. I haven't looked at the "blog" he lists in his profile but I expect it's more of the same.
Posted 2 years ago # -
DavidF
Elysium Fields
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Ah yes, the "cut taxes for businesses and all will be well" line of reasoning. Why not? It worked brilliantly for the last decade right? Aren't we all better off than we were? I mean except for the poor and working class who obviously deserve to be where they are.
Trickle down is alive and well.
Posted 2 years ago # -
Doug Z
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kit444 wrote >>
Doug Z wrote >>
kit444 wrote: "Assuming the economy improves in 2010 as it seems cyclically bound to do, so will Strickland's approval rating and his prospects for victory."
That's a huge assumption. IMHO, we are only 20% through the financial/economic crisis...If I made a huge assumption, then you followed with massive ones.
Touche.
But the fact is that 3 of the 4 biggest banks are bigger now than BEFORE the meltdown last year. Nothing has been done to change, "too big to fail."
I sometimes listen to Glenn Beck and Limbaugh even though I think they are idiots. The conservatives are banking on the economy getting much worse. Their remedies are more of the same snake-oil (trickle down tax cuts) but I'm afraid their forecasting is correct.
Posted 2 years ago # -
Thory
Asheville, NC
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I can't fault Strickland for the economy. This recession is affecting a lot of the world. Its the things he has supported that bother me. If I were voting today, I would definitely go with Strickland over Kasich. I just wish a third choice would show up and have a chance of winning. Where is our Jesse Ventura?
Posted 2 years ago # -
Aunt Madge
Clintonville
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Kasich will have no problem winning against Strickland. The Republicans in the Senate have been more than successful putting up roadblocks against everything Strickland has tried to do and as a result, he looks like a weak and failed leader. I assume there will also be a heavy cross-over protest vote by disenchanted Democrats. I wonder if this will make other Fox News Commentators across the country to do likewise and run for governor in their respective states once they see Kasich is successful. It could be a Fox News Network takeover ... what next, Glen Beck for President!
Posted 2 years ago # -
hugh59
Aboard the ultimate power in Olde Towne East
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The real problem for Ohio is that it is a high tax, low service state. This is the fault of politicians from both parties.
There is an interesting article on this subject, dealing with California. Sadly, the writer's tone is offensive to people who disagree with him and this may cause people to disregard him. But I feel he makes a good point:
"Whatever theoretical claims are made for imposing high taxes to provide generous government benefits, the practical reality is that these public goods are, increasingly, neither public nor good: their beneficiaries are mostly the service providers themselves, and their quality is poor."
The Big-Spending, High-Tax, Lousy-Services Paradigm
Ohio is not nearly in as bad a shape as California is, but we suffer from the same problem: the state does a poor job of providing services. And there really is not anything we can do about it. If we try to cut taxes and "starve the beast" we find that our politicians won't have the willpower to make the cuts that are needed...instead they will borrow.
Posted 2 years ago #
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