The National Association of Business Economists is declaring that the recession begun 22 months ago is over.

READ MORE

A new forecast eyeing 50 major metropolitan markets indicates Columbus could have more than its bicentennial year to celebrate in 2012.

Lexington, Mass.-based economic forecasting firm IHS Global Insight is projecting that the city likely is to bounce back to pre-recession job levels that year, along with major metros such as Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston and New York City.

READ MORE

LA, Chicago, NYC big losers in employment

Some additional contest in how our numbers relate to the rest of the big midwest cities:

Midwest Miscellany

The most severe economic recession since the Great Depression is history, economists said yesterday, after key early data for economic conditions in August came in much stronger than expected.

But as long as consumers remain hamstrung by weak pay and job losses, and wary of ramping up spending, the recovery may not be felt on Main Street quickly. And the Dow, despite its recent renaissance, was down nearly 200 points yesterday.

READ MORE

The recession might be over already — and central Ohio is poised to reap the rewards of a turnaround.

That view came from three area business leaders yesterday at a gathering sponsored by the Columbus Metropolitan Club.

“I personally do believe we probably are out of the recession,” said Bill LaFayette, the Columbus Chamber’s vice president for economic analysis.

READ MORE

The advance estimate of second quarter GDP released the other day was a pleasant surprise.  It came in at a decline of 1.0 percent, as opposed to the 1.6 percent decline that was generally expected.  That estimate is subject to revision, but it strenthens the belief that we will have output growth in the second half.  The feeling is strong that GDP growth will cause the NBER to declare the recession over.  But again, that does not mean we will immediately see employment growth resume.

We are always working to bring new companies to town, both nationally and internationally.  Here is the list of companies that the region picked up during 2008.  Headquarters are always prestigious, but they relocate only very rarely — which is one reason why Dayton losing NCR to Atlanta was such big news.   I think sometimes we fail to appreciate the importance of non-headquarters back-office operations, which are much easier to attract.  JP Morgan Chase has added more than 2,600 jobs in this region since they merged with Bank One.  That makes them the region’s largest private-sector employer, and they just announced plans to add 1,150 more jobs.  NetJets employs 1,800 here and is adding 800 more.  Neither company has its corporate headquarters here.  This point also brings out the importance of the current business base to economic growth.  A rule of thumb in economic development is that 60 to 80 percent of all net employment growth is due to companies already in place.

methinks this is just like it was back in 1930, people calling a bottom for years with no fundamental  economic basis behind it

when we have several months of climbing economic activity and the fundamentals showing a turnaround then call a bottom

That article that I cited was measuring things in terms of employment levels, and it was my impression that Dr. Bill thinks they may not return to pre-recession levels for awhile after the recession is “over”. I don’t know if he thinks that 2011 estimate is accurate, but it sounds like he doesn’t think it’s quite as relative as it could be for measuring these types of things.

My questions is… how do you celebrate the end of a recession? A parade? Do we get cake? ;)

Good Job once again.