Business First of Columbus wrote
Condos fuel downtown population gain
Friday, June 29, 2007
by Matt Burns
Downtown Columbus has broken its half-century trend of flat or declining population with 30 percent growth this decade, a study said Friday. Columbus-based Danter Co. said more than 1,000 people took up residence downtown between 2000 and 2006, bringing the center city’s population to 4,502 – roughly the size of Groveport.
The study said demand for downtown housing is at more than 5,000 units, and it could increase by 30 percent if a streetcar system is installed. The city is exploring developing a streetcar line for downtown.
More than 2,800 condos with a total value of $261 million are in the development pipeline.
Danter’s analysis, also indicated more growth could occur downtown if developers can tap a market that now makes up less than a quarter of downtown real estate sales – condos under $200,000. The median sales price in 2006 for downtown housing was $296,845.


Condos fuel downtown population gain

Well, on the one hand, “roughly the size of Groveport” isn’t all that much of an accomplishment in absolute terms, all things considered. But it’s something in relative terms, given where we were at the start of Coleman’s first term.
That said, it was somewhat surreal reading this article, simply because so many of the numbers seemed at odds with so many of the words. If we actually had come close to that 10,000 benchmark (figure that would probably mean 15k-20k new downtown residents at 1.5-2 bedrooms average per new residence), that might make the “population boom” language of this article a little more justifiable, but I think this was a little … I dunno … the first word that came to my mind was actually “hyper.”
The mayor’s office, city council, and private developers have all done solid work in the past decade, but you don’t get the “slow and steady” vibe from this article. There are still a lot of challenges left.
Sure, 4,500 is a small amount of people, but a 30% growth in seven years is pretty decent when you compare it to the past 50 years of a massively shrinking population downtown.
Is there any fear that the market will become too flooded with condos and there won’t be enough demand for the amount of projects occurring/planned? I don’t know how downtowns work, but it seems like this could be something that could occur…
Right on Ranger!
There’s that fear in any developing market I suppose. The thing that I feel will regulate the Downtown market is that with faster development of residences, we’ll see faster development of amenities. I see sort of a cyclical demand there.
Total guessing on my part, but once we get that critical mass, things turn into that proverbial snowball rolling downhill.
I completely agree about the critical mass that will get the snowball rolling.
The only question is what is that critical mass. Obviously we can’t no for sure before it actually happens, but we equally know that it hasn’t happened yet. Witness the resistance the streetcar project has run into … Coleman knew it was enough of a hot-button issue that he didn’t even mention it by name in his State of the City address, which is typically a little less confrontational than a State of the Union address because unlike the President addressing Congress, Coleman doesn’t have too many natural enemies on City Council. That’s not the kind of thing we’d see if things were already “snowballing.”
The question is what is that tipping point. We’ve got 4500. But do we only need to get to 6000 before things start really taking off? Or is even the original 10,000 benchmark not going to be enough to give events enough momentum to give them a life of their own?
Regardless, I think it’s amazing that we still have developers pushing downtown condos through the pipeline in a reasonably steady stream despite the fact that the housing market isn’t getting quite the “soft landing” that more optimistic forecasters wanted (though it still hasn’t spilled out into the larger economy). That says something about the demand right there. However, as was already noted in another thread, the prices per square foot are still tending to largely (not completely, but largely) restrict the market to empty nesters and older two-income couples.
I don’t think even the current modest upward trends are sustainable with both a small pool of buyers on the demand side and hostile conditions in the national housing market on the supply side. However, I’ve been wrong before. (If I could accurately predict the housing market, even on a micro scale, I’d have gone into investment banking instead of law. No-stakes pontificating on the Internet is much more my speed.)
I know myself and a few friends would definately consider moving downtown into a condo, if the prices were a little friendlier. As young professionals, some of the asking prices are waaay above our means
I have to agree with dnm…many of the prices are too high for young professionals just getting into full-time positions. There are some affordable places, but they are like 500 square feet, which is almost pointless to own something so small.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…when you move, consider ALL of the expenses, not just the price of the rent/mortgage.
When my wife and I moved downtown, we sold one car, slashed our gas, gasoline, and electric bills, ditched my work parking pass, regained an hour a day that I used to spend in traffic, and started building equity. That’s an easy $5-10k per year in savings. Slap that on a mortgage and you’re looking at a house worth $50-100k more.
We could’ve afforded a roomier place outside 270, but our quality of life wouldn’t be as good (in our opinion). I’m sure our mortgage would have been a smaller percentage of our budget, but our overall budget would remain the same due to increases in other expenses.
I need to resurrect my old budget files and make a post on how things changed.
There’s that fear in any developing market I suppose. The thing that I feel will regulate the Downtown market is that with faster development of residences, we’ll see faster development of amenities. I see sort of a cyclical demand there.
Total guessing on my part, but once we get that critical mass, things turn into that proverbial snowball rolling downhill.
In Atlanta, condos are still being built in an already saturated market. The thought is that people are always looking for the newest and hottest places. That seems to be what’s fueling the business here. In reality, all that’s happening is resident swaping. People selling their units in one building to move to the next. It’s very tenuous, at best.
I’d be really interested in seeing that comparison. I’m aware of money that can be saved when you’re able to walk to work and other places, so for me it’s less of an impact moving into a condo when I already save money from walking around from my apartment. But still, would be some interesting info to see on your site.
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