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A report released today by the Columbus Chamber of Commerce projects that the regional retail sector for the Central Ohio region will steadily rebound and grow over the next 10 years. “Because the Columbus MSA did not fully participate in the boom, the recession has affected employment to a much smaller-than-average degree,” said Bill LaFayette, Ph.D., vice president of economic analysis for the Columbus Chamber.
Additional information can be found in the press release below.
Press Release:
Columbus Chamber’s Retail Report Shows Regional Optimism Moving Forward
Although the Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA — Delaware, Fairfield, Franklin, Licking, Madison, Morrow, Pickaway, and Union Counties) experienced sharp declines in retail employment between 2000 and 2006 and income growth rates half the national average between 2002 and 2007, the region’s retail sector is expected to grow over the next decade.
“Because the Columbus MSA did not fully participate in the boom, the recession has affected employment to a much smaller-than-average degree,” said Bill LaFayette, Ph.D., vice president of economic analysis for the Columbus Chamber. “The expectation among economists is that the labor market will turn sometime during 2010 – although even an increase in earnings among current workers will be positive for retail sales.”
Preliminary employment estimates show that Columbus MSA employment declined 1.9 percent between December 2007 (the beginning of the recession) and September 2009, compared to a decline of 5.2 percent in U.S. employment. Retail employment also performed better than average in the same time period, falling 4.5 percent compared to a 5.6 percent decline nationally.
The decline in Franklin County retail, specifically, has been more severe since 2001 than at the regional level. For instance, Delaware County recorded an increase of 78.8 percent, or 223 establishments, from 2001 to 2008, while Franklin County experienced a decrease of 6 percent, or 237 establishments.
According to LaFayette, this decrease is likely due to the spread of the urbanized area of Columbus into adjacent counties and the development of retail corridors outside of Franklin County, such as Polaris Fashion Place in Delaware County and the Route 256 shopping developments in Licking County. These newer developments were at the expense of existing developments within the county, such as the Morse/161 and Brice Road corridors.
The Chamber’s report shows that the collapse in retail employment during the early years of the 2000s stemmed from massive overdevelopment during the 1980s and 1990s. Between 1990 and 1997, Columbus MSA retail employment grew 19.2 percent (19,000 jobs), compared to 9.2 percent growth nationally. From December 2000 to the beginning of the recession in December 2007, retail employment declined 26,300 (18.1 percent), which brought employment back into a reasonable range.
“Columbus MSA retail was already overdeveloped in 1990, and the high growth of the early and mid-1990s made a bad situation worse,” said LaFayette. “After the 2001 recession, regional employment growth was half the national average, translating to weak growth in personal income. The return of regional retail to a more reasonable level of development suggests that retail growth in the Columbus MSA is possible once the economic recovery becomes solid.”
A detailed report and visual representation of this information is available at www.columbus.org.
“While his report indicated there’s been a net loss of 83 establishments Downtown, including City Center, he said it, along with the rest of the region, is ripe for growth yet again. ”
http://www2.nbc4i.com/cmh/news/local/article/Economists_Retail_Sector_To_Improve_In_2010/27966/
Lord only knows what that would be if they included 2008 and 2009.
Granted most of that 83 is likely City Center Carnage, but I’d think anytime you have a NET loss that high over that kind of time period it indicates the area has a competiveness problem
Especially when you factor this in
“LaFayette said retail has done better in those counties surrounding Franklin County and the county itself has fared better than the central city area.”
I have my suspicions as to one of the sources of the problem.
credit has fallen off a cliff and has no reason to return
banks are not doing any commercial lending at all and we have at least 3 regional banks here that are fundamentally insolvent, only thing keeping them alive is FASB rule changes and the govt is pretending they are sound
consumer credit is being ripped away about as fast as the banks can do it
so all this growth is going to come from where?
I noticed they are using the U-3 unemployment numbers too. Anybody buying the BLS numbers by now needs a reality check. Wanna get a look at what is really going on, check tax receipts and shipping volume. Our economy has lost more than 25% since fall 2007. It isn’t cliff diving anymore but without credit it isn’t going to be growing in any significant fashion either and debt levels are still way too high, people need time to get out of debt. Plus commercial real estate is still got another year at least of fallout coming which is just getting started in earnest. Plus the FED recently made it quite clear to the top banks to shut off commercial lending if they haven’t done so already, most did 2 summers ago. FDIC is fundamentally bankrupt, $8.2 billion in the hole as of 3Q numbers. 2010 and 2011 are going to have municipalities going bankrupt left and right, many will use that to break their over generous pension obligations. Columbus isn’t in dire straights yet but it isn’t healthy either. State is in worse shape.
I’d say the above report is pretty optimistic and not grounded in reality at all. Depressions fueled by too much leverage and loose credit take a long time to clear, not just a year or two, more like 10 plus. Our federal govt is also going the route Japan took, this means no recovery ever, not at least what many would call a “recovery” anyway. 5% unemployment and 3% inflation? doubt we will see that again for a long long time.